FDI对中亚经济的影响

发布时间：2018-07-13 10:17

【摘要】：20世纪90年代，中亚国家相继独立。苏联解体之后，俄罗斯国内问题成堆、自顾不暇，，中亚地区出现了政治、经济真空，世界各国纷纷进入。随着世界对这一地区战略地位认识的逐步加深，各国特别是大国在这一地区的竞争日趋激烈。“9.11”事件后，中亚地区在国际反恐格局的特殊地位更得以凸显，美国以阿富汗战争为契机，实现了在中亚的经济、政治和军事存在。随着欧盟边界与中亚的日趋接近，欧盟从战略视野上扩大和加强了与中亚合作的领域与措施，日本、土耳其、伊朗等国也以各种形式对中亚国家进行渗透，积极扩展在中亚的利益和影响力。中亚作为世界的“心脏地带”，有着重要的战略地位，在国际地缘政治中发挥缓冲作用。中国在此有着重要的战略利益，中国西北边疆的稳定、中国能源战略的安全、中国经济的稳定、持续发展都与中亚密切相关。经济是参与国际竞争的基础，大国博弈日趋激烈的情况下，中国为了争取在中亚博弈中的有利地位，加强与其的投资、贸易等经济合作是必要手段。正是基于大国博弈和经济全球化的大背景，使用面板数据模型从产业结构、对外贸易、就业三个层面对FDI对哈萨克斯坦经济的影响进行实证检验，对FDI对中亚国家经济增长的影响进行实证分析；使用灰色关联度模型对FDI对乌兹别克斯坦的产业结构、吉尔吉斯斯坦的对外贸易和就业进行实证检验，研究FDI对中亚国家经济的影响。实证结果显示：FDI对哈萨克斯坦产业结构调整起到较为明显的正向作用；对出口、进口、进出口的正效应显著，具体商品类型间差别较大；FDI对其就业的影响也是相当可观的，对不同行业就业人口、平均工资的影响程度存在差别与其行业特色、国情和战略选择不无关系。FDI对吉尔吉斯斯坦就业的影响是正面且显著的；具体行业商品类型有所不同，对进口的影响大于出口。乌兹别克斯坦FDI的引入对不同行业的影响没有形成显著差别，产业结构没有发生明显的倾斜。FDI对中亚国家经济增长的影响哈萨克斯坦最大、其次是土库曼斯坦，乌兹别克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦三国最小，这与中亚各国的资源环境、法律环境、投资政策、经济发展状况等投资环境有关。最后给出中国对中亚国家投资的结论和启示。中国对中亚投资过程中，应注意不同国家投资方式上的差异、对劳动力导向型投资的适当重视；矿产能源领域依然是中国对哈萨克斯坦直接投资的重要领域，建筑业、宾馆和酒店行业是中国对中亚投资不可忽视的领域；制造业是中国对中亚投资的战略选择，而创新型农业、服务业将是最有发展前途的行业之一；中国应继续加大对中亚国家直接投资的力度，哈萨克斯坦、土库曼斯坦仍将是最重要的市场。
[Abstract]:In the 1990 s, Central Asian countries became independent one after another. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia's domestic problems were piled up, the Central Asian region appeared a political and economic vacuum, and the countries of the world entered one after another. With the gradual deepening of the world's understanding of the strategic position of this region, the competition between various countries, especially the big countries, in this region is becoming increasingly fierce. After the September 11 incident, the special position of Central Asia in the international anti-terrorism pattern has become even more prominent. Taking the war in Afghanistan as an opportunity, the United States realized its economic, political and military presence in Central Asia. With the increasingly close border between the EU and Central Asia, the EU has expanded and strengthened the fields and measures of cooperation with Central Asia from a strategic perspective. Japan, Turkey, Iran and other countries have also infiltrated Central Asian countries in various forms. Actively expand the interests and influence in Central Asia. As the heart of the world, Central Asia has an important strategic position and plays a buffer role in international geopolitics. China has important strategic interests. The stability of the northwest frontier of China, the security of China's energy strategy, the stability of China's economy, and the sustainable development of China's economy are closely related to Central Asia. Economy is the basis of participating in international competition. In order to gain a favorable position in the game of Central Asia, it is necessary for China to strengthen its investment, trade and other economic cooperation in order to gain a favorable position in the game of Central Asia. Based on the background of big country game and economic globalization, panel data model is used to test the impact of FDI on Kazakhstan's economy from three aspects: industrial structure, foreign trade and employment. Empirical analysis is made on the impact of FDI on the economic growth of Central Asian countries, and the industrial structure of Uzbekistan, foreign trade and employment of Kyrgyzstan are tested by using grey relational degree model. To study the impact of FDI on the economies of Central Asian countries. The empirical results show that: FDI plays an obvious positive role in the adjustment of Kazakhstan's industrial structure, and the positive effects on exports, imports and exports are significant, and the effects of FDI on employment among specific commodity types are quite considerable. For the employed population in different industries, the influence degree of the average wage is different with the characteristics of the industry, the influence of FDI on employment in Kyrgyzstan is positive and significant, and the commodity types of specific industries are different. The impact on imports is greater than that on exports. There is no significant difference in the impact of FDI in Uzbekistan on different industries. The industrial structure does not have a significant bias. FDI has the greatest impact on the economic growth of Central Asian countries, followed by Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are the smallest, which is related to the investment environment of Central Asian countries, such as resource environment, legal environment, investment policy and economic development. Finally, the conclusion and enlightenment of Chinese investment in Central Asian countries are given. In the process of China's investment in Central Asia, we should pay attention to the differences in investment patterns between different countries and give due attention to labour-oriented investment. Mineral energy is still an important area for China's direct investment in Kazakhstan. Hotel and hotel industry is an important field for Chinese investment in Central Asia, manufacturing industry is the strategic choice of China's investment in Central Asia, and innovative agriculture and service industry will be one of the most promising industries. China should continue to increase its direct investment in Central Asian countries. Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan will remain the most important markets.
【学位授予单位】：新疆师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F831.6;F136

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