基于风险的事故隐患分级模型研究

发布时间：2018-01-22 00:39

本文关键词： 事故隐患敏感性企业安全管理三维模型风险分级　出处：《中国地质大学(北京)》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：事故隐患指违反安全法律、法规、规章、标准、规程和管理制度的规定及要求,或者在系统中存在可能导致事故或灾害发生的物的不安全状态、人的不安全行为、环境的不安全状态和管理上的缺陷。事故隐患具备种类繁多,界限不清晰,危险性大等特点。因此,为了加强对事故隐患的安全管理,我国颁布了各类法律法规,制定了各类监管方法。本文梳理了国内关于事故隐患分级现状后,对当前事故隐患的分级现状提出了问题,并在此基础上进行了基于风险的事故隐患分级模型研究。根据风险基本理论,提出风险敏感性概念,在事故隐患风险分级模型的设计过程中加入敏感性因素,将事故隐患分成人、机、环、管四大类,建立事故隐患定量分级模型和定性分级三维模型。针对事故隐患的风险状态,从可能性、严重性、敏感性三个维度研究事故隐患发生的风险,初步确定风险评价指标。运用德尔菲法和问卷调查法筛选指标,建立了四类事故隐患风险评估指标体系。使用层次分析法(AHP)计算各指标的权重,最终设计了四类事故隐患风险分级数学模型。参考国内现有的事故隐患分级标准,结合风险可接受准则,将事故隐患风险等级划分为四级,完成基于风险的事故隐患分级模型研究,同时便于企业针对不同级别的事故隐患采取不同的排查治理措施。为验证事故隐患风险模型的科学性和实用性,本文选取了中油碧辟石油有限公司进行实证研究,采集各类隐患数据进行统计分析。实证研究表明,本文建立的各类事故风险分级模型具有良好的实用性和便捷性,适用于企业进行事故隐患分级监管工作,能够系统、便捷地实现企业的有效安全管理。
[Abstract]:Accident hazards refer to violations of safety laws, regulations, regulations, standards, rules and regulations and management regulations, or the existence of unsafe conditions in the system that may lead to accidents or disasters. The unsafe behavior of human, the unsafe state of the environment and the defect of management. The hidden trouble of the accident has the characteristics of many kinds, the boundary is not clear, the danger is big. Therefore, in order to strengthen the safety management of the hidden trouble of the accident. China has promulgated all kinds of laws and regulations and formulated various supervision methods. After combing the status quo of the classification of hidden dangers in China, this paper puts forward the current situation of classification of hidden dangers of accidents. According to the basic theory of risk, the concept of risk sensitivity is put forward, and sensitivity factors are added to the design process of the model. The hidden trouble of accident is divided into four categories: adult, machine, ring and management, and the quantitative classification model and the qualitative classification model are established. According to the risk state of the hidden trouble, the possibility and severity are analyzed. The sensitivity of the three dimensions of the risk of potential accidents, the risk assessment indicators were preliminarily determined. Delphi method and questionnaire method were used to screen the indicators. This paper establishes four kinds of risk assessment index system of hidden trouble of accident and calculates the weight of each index by using analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Finally, four kinds of mathematical models of risk classification of hidden dangers are designed. Referring to the existing domestic standards of classification of hidden dangers, combined with the acceptable risk criteria, the risk classification of hidden dangers is divided into four levels. At the same time, it is convenient for enterprises to take different measures to check and control the hidden dangers of accidents. In order to verify the scientificity and practicability of the risk model of hidden dangers of accidents, the research on the classification model of hidden dangers of accidents based on risk is completed. This paper selects PetroChina Oil Co., Ltd. to carry out empirical research, collect all kinds of hidden danger data for statistical analysis. The empirical study shows that. All kinds of accident risk classification models established in this paper have good practicability and convenience. They are suitable for enterprises to supervise the hidden dangers of accidents, and can realize the effective safety management of enterprises in a systematic and convenient way.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：X928

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