危化品储运火灾爆炸事故多因素耦合动力学关系

发布时间：2018-01-27 00:56

本文关键词： 危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故致险因素解释结构模型(ISM) 耦合理论系统动力学(SD)　出处：《中国安全科学学报》2017年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：导致危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故的因素众多,揭示其相互间的作用关系是切断事故链实施靶向干预的关键环节。首先,采用事故树和频度统计法遴选出致险因素,通过解释结构模型(ISM)建立致险因素间的递阶层次关系,并基于耦合理论对致险因素进行耦合作用的矢量分析,推导出危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故因果关系图;然后,根据系统动力学(SD)理论,建立危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故多因素耦合下的动力学模型。结果表明:该模型不仅能反映致险因素间的耦合作用关系,还可以对各变量不安全耦合量的累积过程进行可视化描述,为后续各致险因素对危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故作用机理的研究奠定基础。
[Abstract]:There are many factors leading to the fire and explosion accidents of dangerous chemicals storage and transportation. It is the key link to cut off the chain of accidents and implement targeted intervention. The risk factors were selected by accident tree and frequency statistics, and the hierarchical relationship between risk factors was established by explaining the structural model ISM. Based on the coupling theory, the vector analysis of the risk factors is carried out, and the causality diagram of the fire and explosion accidents in the storage and transportation of dangerous chemicals is derived. Then, according to the SDS theory of system dynamics. The dynamic model of hazard chemical storage and transportation under the coupling of multiple factors is established. The results show that the model can not only reflect the coupling relationship between risk factors. It is also possible to visualize the cumulative process of unsafe coupling of various variables, which lays a foundation for the further study of the mechanism of hazardous chemical storage and transportation fire and explosion accidents.
【作者单位】：天津理工大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目资助(71173152) 天津市科技计划项目(15ZCZDSF00400)
【分类号】：TQ086.52
【正文快照】： 0引言我国化学品种类有500万~700万种,危险化学品(简称危化品)生产企业超过2万家。由于危化品储运火灾爆炸事故具有突发性、复杂性、灾难性等特点[1],安全事故时有发生。例如:天津港“8·12”瑞海公司危险品仓库特别重大火灾爆炸事故[2]、“11·22”中石化东黄输油管道泄漏爆

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