高危作业施工危险因素分析与评价

发布时间：2018-01-28 17:32

本文关键词： 高危作业事故树贝叶斯网络实证贝叶斯理论决策树　出处：《华中科技大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着中国经济的快速发展，大型工程建设项目不断出现，施工作业安全问题日益显现，尤其是高危作业施工事故的频发给施工人员和社会带来了难以估量的损失高危作业施工安全问题日益受到重视，对高危作业施工危险因素进行分析具有十分重要的现实意义本文以高危作业安全事故作为案例，首先对事故进行初步的时序统计和分类统计分析，获得对事故的全局认识在基于事故树和贝叶斯网络方法进行致危因素分析的部分，，主要以其中的高处坠落事故为例事故树的构建遵循确定事故影响因素对影响因素进行相关性分析并辅助专家经验的步骤将事故树贝叶斯网络化后，利用贝叶斯网络的推理计算对事故进行定量分析，主要包括节点重要度分析节点灵敏度分析以及贝叶斯网络诊断推理，找出最可能致因链在基于实证贝叶斯理论进行事故分析的部分，本文根据HFACS（人为因素分析与分类系统）框架对安全事故分层次研究，展示了进行超参数和后验概率估算的方法在基于决策树进行事故分析的部分，本文选择CHIAD算法，进行数据预处理后，辅助计算机软件SPSS对事故影响因素进行决策树建模决策树建模的风险分析分类等均达到了要求最终，本文从多角度综合分析，得到安全监督检查验收不充分教育培训不到位作业环境差等方面对高危作业施工安全事故的发生具有尤为明显的作用在日常的事故安全管理中需要特别注意作业环境等外部支撑条件的管控；在事故的管理监控方面，加大教育培训力度加强安全监督检查和验收以及风险监控都是当务之急
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, large-scale construction projects are emerging constantly, and the safety problems of construction operations are becoming increasingly apparent. In particular, the frequent occurrence of construction accidents in high-risk operations has brought incalculable losses to the construction personnel and the society. The construction safety problems of high-risk operations have been paid more and more attention. It is of great practical significance to analyze the construction risk factors of high risk operations. This article takes the high risk work safety accident as the case, first carries on the preliminary time series statistics and the classification statistical analysis to the accident. The global understanding of the accident is based on the fault tree and Bayesian network method to analyze the risk factors. Mainly take the accident tree as an example, follow the steps of determining the influence factors of the accident to analyze the influence factors and assist the expert experience to network the accident tree. The quantitative analysis of accidents is carried out by using the reasoning calculation of Bayesian network, including node importance analysis, node sensitivity analysis and Bayesian network diagnostic reasoning. Find out the most likely cause chain based on empirical Bayesian theory for accident analysis part, this paper based on the HFACS (artificial factor analysis and classification system) framework of safety accidents research. The method of super-parameter and posteriori probability estimation is shown in the part of accident analysis based on decision tree. This paper chooses CHIAD algorithm to preprocess the data. The risk analysis and classification of decision tree modeling for decision tree modeling of accident influencing factors by the auxiliary computer software SPSS have reached the final requirement. This paper comprehensively analyzes from multiple angles. Safety supervision, inspection, acceptance, inadequate education, inadequate training, poor working environment, etc., have a particularly obvious effect on the occurrence of construction safety accidents in high-risk operations. In the daily accident safety management, special attention should be paid to the operation. Control of external supporting conditions such as environment; In the management and monitoring of accidents, it is urgent to strengthen education and training to strengthen safety supervision, inspection and acceptance, and risk monitoring.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TU714;TP18

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