炼化装置故障链式效应定量安全预警方法

发布时间：2018-01-29 08:33

  本文关键词： 过程系统 目标树成功树-动态主逻辑图 故障链式效应 安全 预测　出处：《化工学报》2016年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：炼化装置故障及其故障链式效应对油气生产和人民生命安全所造成的危害严重。从故障链角度进行事故风险研究,提出炼化装置故障链式效应定量安全预警方法。首先分析炼化装置故障链式关系结构,基于目标树成功树-动态主逻辑图(GTST-DMLD)建立其故障链式效应关系模型,揭示炼化装置故障链式效应行为规律和关联本质,从而评价装置异常工况下的安全状态。进一步以马尔可夫过程为理论基础,建立故障链式效应预测模型,预测故障传播的后果和方向,并计算各后果的发生概率,为现场操作人员进行主动维修或应急处置提供依据。案例分析中通过对某化工厂常压塔装置、减压炉装置为研究对象进行应用与验证,结果表明该方法可以准确地对系统故障发生后的状态进行评价和预测,方法有效、可行,便于操作人员在处置已有故障的同时,注意预防其他异常工况的发生,降低油气生产加工过程中的整体风险。
[Abstract]:The failure of refinery plant and its chain effect cause serious harm to oil and gas production and the safety of people's life. The risk of accident is studied from the angle of fault chain. A quantitative safety early warning method for failure chain effect of refinery plant is proposed. Firstly, the fault chain relationship structure of refinery plant is analyzed. Based on the target tree success tree-dynamic master logic diagram GTST-DMLD, a fault chain effect relationship model is established, which reveals the behavior law and correlation nature of fault chain effect in refinery plant. Based on the theory of Markov process, a fault chain effect prediction model is established to predict the consequence and direction of fault propagation. The occurrence probability of each consequence is calculated to provide the basis for active maintenance or emergency disposal of field operators. In the case analysis, the atmospheric tower installation in a chemical plant is analyzed. The results show that the method can accurately evaluate and predict the state of the system after the fault occurs, and the method is effective and feasible. It is convenient for operators to prevent the occurrence of other abnormal working conditions and reduce the overall risk in the process of oil and gas production and processing while handling the existing faults.
【作者单位】： 中国石油大学(北京)机械与储运工程学院国家安全生产技术支撑体系"油气生产事故预防与控制基础研究实验室";
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51574263) 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-12-0972) 中国石油大学(北京)科研基金项目(2462015YQ0403)~~
【分类号】：TE687
【正文快照】： Received date:2015-11-26.Corresponding author:Prof.HU Jinqiu,hujq@cup.edu.cnFoundation item:supported by the National Natural Science Foundationof China(51574263),the Program for New Century Excellent Talents inUniversity(NCET-12-0972)and the Science Fou，

本文编号：1473008