运用多重属性风险评估法评价跑道侵入风险

发布时间：2018-02-08 11:04

本文关键词： 跑道侵入 R-S-TER模型层次分析多重属性风险评估因果分析法　出处：《中国民用航空飞行学院》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：世界航空运输业的快速发展是有目共睹的,机场交通密度也随之逐渐增大,航空安全问题也越来越多,其中跑道安全问题严重影响航空安全,跑道侵入属于跑道安全问题之一。近几年来,由于旅客量大增,为了扩大容量,很多机场新修跑道以满足日益增多的旅客量。同时跑道与滑行道系统越来越复杂,导致跑道侵入发生的次数越来越多。面对严峻的局面,对当局及从业人员提出更高的要求,如何在满足当前消费者的出行需求的前提下,保障民航系统跑道安全运行,尽可能预防和减少跑道侵入的次数,是国内外民航从业人员关注的重点。本文以跑道侵入为主要研究对象,通过对相关法规和国内外学者对跑道侵入研究的学习,综合分析了跑道侵入的研究现状,及亟待解决的关键性问题。首先,简单论述了跑道侵入的含义和维数,以R-S-TER模型为基础,识别出导致跑道侵入的诱因,进行了归类划分。其次,采用层次分析法建立跑道侵入诱因的指标体系,用EXCEL计算软件分层分类的确定每个指标的权重,以此为基础确定人为因素在整个事件中的主体地位。然后,运用多重属性风险评估法对不同严重等级的跑道侵入进行量化,并建立模型进行了具体计算和实例分析,并通过改进,规避了传统多重属性风险评估法的一些弊端。最后,用因果分析法、事故树多因素分析法对导致跑道侵入的各因素及他们之间的关系展开分析论述,提出了相关的整改意见。
[Abstract]:The rapid development of the world's air transport industry is obvious to all, the airport traffic density is also gradually increasing, aviation safety problems are also increasing, among which runway safety problems seriously affect aviation safety. Runway intrusion is one of the runway safety problems. In recent years, due to the large increase in the number of passengers, in order to expand the capacity of many airports, many new runways have been repaired to meet the increasing number of passengers. At the same time, the runway and taxiway systems are becoming more and more complex. This has led to more and more runway intrusions. In the face of the severe situation, the authorities and employees are required to make higher demands. How to ensure the safe operation of the runway of the civil aviation system under the premise of meeting the current travel needs of consumers, To prevent and reduce the number of runway intrusions as far as possible is the focus of civil aviation practitioners at home and abroad. This paper takes runway intrusion as the main research object, through the relevant laws and regulations and the study of domestic and foreign scholars on runway intrusion research, This paper comprehensively analyzes the research status of runway intrusion and the key problems to be solved. Firstly, the meaning and dimension of runway intrusion are briefly discussed. Based on R-S-TER model, the inducement of runway intrusion is identified. Secondly, the index system of the inducement of runway invasion is established by AHP, and the weight of each index is determined by EXCEL software. Based on this, the main position of human factors in the whole event is determined. Then, the multi-attribute risk assessment method is used to quantify the runway intrusions of different serious grades, and the concrete calculation and case analysis are carried out. Through the improvement, some disadvantages of the traditional multi-attribute risk assessment method are avoided. Finally, the causality analysis method and the accident tree multi-factor analysis method are used to analyze the factors leading to the runway invasion and the relationship between them. The paper puts forward some relevant suggestions for rectification.
【学位授予单位】：中国民用航空飞行学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：V328

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