桥隧群路段交通安全评价与改善措施研究

发布时间：2018-02-17 01:13

本文关键词： 桥隧群路段安全因素分析贝叶斯网络对策库　出处：《长安大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,我国的公路建设特别是高速公路开始逐步由东部向西部延伸,促使公路桥梁和隧道以及桥隧道群的大量出现,而桥隧道群由于其特殊的行车环境,成为交通事故频发的路段,国内对于桥隧群路段交通事故的机理尚不完全清楚。因此,研究桥隧群路段运行安全评价与改善措施,对于提高公路隧道及隧道群的安全水平,促进公路交通可持续发展,具有理论和现实意义。本文在分析国内外相关文献的基础上,指出了目前相关研究中存在的问题和不足,确定了主要研究内容和技术路线;根据六安高速公路桥隧群路段事故历史数据,主要从交通事故发生的时间分布、空间分布、气候分布、事故形态分布以及事故车辆类型分布几个方面对桥隧群路段的交通事故特性进行了分析;以此为基础,从驾驶员特征、交通条件、道路状态和外界环境的角度,分析了影响桥隧群路段交通事故的主要因素;运用层次分析法建立了包含6个一级指标和19个二级指标的桥隧群路段运行安全指标体系;运用贝叶斯网络方法,建立贝叶斯网络安全评估模型以及贝叶斯网络拓扑结构,并借助Ge Ne I软件展开计算,采用专家打分法对贝叶斯网络进行推断更新,从而得到桥隧群路段的安全等级;以五条桥隧群路段为例,进行了实例验证,并提出了相应的改进措施。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the highway construction in China, especially the highway, began to extend gradually from the east to the west, which promoted the emergence of highway bridges, tunnels and bridge tunnel groups, and the bridge tunnel group was due to its special driving environment. The mechanism of traffic accidents in bridge and tunnel groups is not completely clear in China. Therefore, the study on safety evaluation and improvement measures of bridge and tunnel groups can improve the safety level of highway tunnels and tunnel groups. It is of theoretical and practical significance to promote the sustainable development of highway traffic. Based on the analysis of the relevant literature at home and abroad, this paper points out the existing problems and shortcomings in the related research at present, and determines the main research contents and technical routes. According to the historical data of the accidents in the bridge and tunnel sections of the Lu'an Expressway, mainly from the time distribution, the spatial distribution, the climate distribution of the traffic accidents, The traffic accident characteristics of bridge and tunnel sections are analyzed from the aspects of accident form distribution and accident vehicle type distribution, which are based on the characteristics of drivers, traffic conditions, road conditions and external environment. The main factors affecting traffic accidents in bridge and tunnel groups are analyzed, and the operation safety index system of bridge and tunnel groups including 6 first-grade indexes and 19 second-class indexes is established by using analytic hierarchy process, and the Bayesian network method is used. The Bayesian network security evaluation model and the Bayesian network topology structure are established. With the aid of GE ne software, the Bayesian network is inferred and updated by using the expert scoring method, and the safety grade of the bridge and tunnel group is obtained. Taking five sections of bridge and tunnel as an example, the examples are verified and the corresponding improvement measures are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U492.8

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