煤层底板突水变权脆弱性评价模型参数灵敏度分析

发布时间：2018-02-17 01:16

本文关键词： 突水变权脆弱性评价评价效果参数灵敏度分析　出处：《采矿与安全工程学报》2015年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为了更好地了解煤层底板突水变权脆弱性评价模型的评价特点,通过评价效果图对比、典型单元格评价结果对比和综合评价值域的对比来进行变权模型评价效果的分析。同时为了定量地分析参数对评价结果的影响范围和影响程度,运用局部灵敏度分析法对调权参数和主控因素参数进行了灵敏度分析。结果表明:脆弱性指数的变化与调权参数a2,a3、含水层水压、含水层富水性、断层规模指数、断层褶皱分布和断层交点与端点的变化成正相关关系,与调权参数c、有效隔水层等效厚度和矿压破坏带下脆性岩厚度成负相关关系;调权参数在变幅±5%的拐点之后灵敏度系数发生显著的改变;调权参数a1,a2及有效隔水层等效厚度和含水层水压对脆弱性指数变化影响较大。
[Abstract]:In order to better understand the evaluation characteristics of vulnerability assessment model of water inrush weight of coal seam floor, the evaluation effect map is compared. In order to analyze the evaluation effect of variable weight model by comparing the evaluation results of typical cells and the range of comprehensive evaluation, and to quantitatively analyze the influence of parameters on the evaluation results, The sensitivity analysis of adjustment weight parameter and main control factor parameter is carried out by using local sensitivity analysis method. The results show that the change of vulnerability index and adjustment weight parameter a _ 2 a _ 3, aquifer water pressure, aquifer water enrichment, fault scale index, etc. The fault fold distribution and fault intersection point are positively correlated with the change of the end points, and negatively correlated with the weight adjustment parameters c, the equivalent thickness of the effective waterproof layer and the thickness of brittle rock under the rock pressure failure zone. The sensitivity coefficient of adjusting weight parameter changed significantly after the inflection point of 卤5%, and the adjustment parameter a _ 1a _ 2, the equivalent thickness of effective water barrier and the water pressure of aquifer had great influence on the change of vulnerability index.
【作者单位】：贵州大学喀斯特环境与地质灾害防治教育部重点实验室;中国矿业大学(北京)地球科学与测绘工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41272276) 贵州省科技厅联合基金项目(黔科合LH字[2014]7617)
【分类号】：TD745

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