中国古文献记载中“死者万计”事件的时空特征与原因分析

发布时间：2018-02-26 07:37

本文关键词： “死者万计”事件自然灾害时空分布中国古文献历史时期　出处：《浙江大学学报(理学版)》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：自然灾害是人地关系最为显性的自然事件.通过检索《中国基本古籍库》及《爱如生数据库·中国方志库》,整理了中国古文献记载中自然灾害导致的"死者万计"事件的发生频次,利用最小二乘法、小波分析和M-K检验等方法,分析其时空特征及发生原因.结果表明:历史时期"死者万计"事件频发,共有217a,主要类型为疫灾、饥灾、飓风、水灾.魏晋南北朝为第1个小活跃期,明清集中了总年数的60.8%,为第2个活跃期,并且秋季和夏季出现次数最多.10a频次呈极显著的波动上升趋势,最大值在1580~1589年,分为频次最少-缓慢上升-频次平缓-快速上升4个阶段,1820年发生增多突变.灾害演化过程中存在26,7和4a共3个周期.空间分布差异明显,以江苏、浙江为主的长江中下游和以河南为主的黄河中下游是2个高频中心,且各省灾害结构不同.气候的寒冷与异常、季节变化、灾害结构、人口规模、社会动荡、朝代更替等是灾害发生的主要原因.
[Abstract]:Natural disasters are the most dominant natural events in the relationship between man and land. By searching the basic ancient books of China and the database of Ailusheng, the author collates the "ten thousand dead" caused by natural disasters in ancient Chinese literature. "the frequency of events, By using the methods of least square method, wavelet analysis and M-K test, the space-time characteristics and the causes of their occurrence are analyzed. The results show that "ten thousand dead" events occur frequently in the historical period, with a total of 217a, the main types of which are epidemic, hunger, hurricane, etc. Flood. The Wei, Jin, Southern and Northern dynasties was the first small active period, and the Ming and Qing dynasties concentrated 60.8 of the total number of years, which was the second active period, and the frequency of the most frequency of .10a in autumn and summer showed an extremely significant fluctuation upward trend, the maximum value was from 1580 to 1589. It is divided into four stages of least frequency, slow rise, gentle frequency and rapid rise. In 1820, the frequency increased and changed. In the course of disaster evolution, there were three periods, 267a and 4a. The spatial distribution was obviously different, especially in Jiangsu, Jiangsu Province, Jiangsu Province, China, China, China, China, China, China, China. The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, mainly in Zhejiang Province and Henan Province, are two high frequency centers, with different disaster structures in different provinces, such as cold and abnormal weather, seasonal changes, disaster structure, population scale and social turbulence. The succession of dynasties is the main cause of disasters.
【作者单位】：陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院;宝鸡文理学院地理与环境学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41371029,41601020) 中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目(2012T50795)
【分类号】：K22;X4

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