土地利用视阈的山洪灾害风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-03-02 06:21

本文关键词： 土地利用山洪风险评价层次分析法 GIS　出处：《东华理工大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：“山洪是山丘区小流域由强降雨引起的突发性、暴涨暴落的地表径流,一旦发生将造成重大人员伤亡和财产损失。”[1]本文从山洪的特点及实践需求出发,在水文地理分析的基础上,从土地利用分析的角度充分考虑人为因素对山洪灾害的影响。采用层次分析法和GIS空间分析相结合的方法建立相对完善的指标体系,对北方干旱半干旱气候山区县域范围的山洪灾害风险进行了量化评估和结果验证与修正。重点从以下几个方面了做了相关研究工作:(1)从土地利用视阈分析风险因子各地山洪的防洪减灾工程,最终都是落实在土地利用规划中加以实施的。因此本文在山洪灾害风险评价中,在考虑传统评价指标体系中的水文地理因子的基础上,全面分析了土地利用因素对山洪灾害的相关影响,包括地均GDP、道路密度、现状防洪设施土壤类型、土地利用类型、人口分布等。评价结果更利于指导以防洪减灾为目的的土地利用规划工作。(2)综合多源数据,完善评价指标体系基于土地利用分析的山洪灾害风险评价,从现实需要出发,综合多源数据,建立相对完善的评价指标体系。一方面,综合分析并重新界定致灾因子降雨量。针对北方干旱地区的气候特点和山洪特征,选择夏季7月和8月的降雨量数据,将“最大24小时降雨量”、“最大6小时降雨量”、“最大1小时降雨量”和“最大10分钟降雨量”作为致灾因子,进行综合分析。另一方面,首次考虑人类作用的现状防洪能力因子——防洪减灾的工程和非工程措施——作为易损性因子之一加入山洪灾害风险评价,提高整个评价体统的完整性和科学性。此外,尝试将乡镇范围的地均GDP作为经济价值指标纳入易损性评价体系。(3)开展我国北部干旱地区县域小范围山洪灾害实例研究当前的山洪研究主要集中在我国南方地区的大江大河流域,北方县域范围小流域的山洪研究则很少。属于干旱和半干旱气候的我国北部大部分地区,其降雨空间分布和时间分配极为不均;加之北方山区高程起伏大,植被覆盖率相对南方较低,致使极端天气下的山洪灾害常常发生。本文以甘肃省武威市古浪县为研究对象,开展我国北部干旱地区的山洪灾害风险评价的县域范围实例研究,对北方的山洪防治具有指导意义。(4)利用历史山洪数据进行评价结果验证与修正采用近五十年的历史山洪数据对评价结果进行精度验证和修正,在此基础上将历史山洪灾害作为评价因子对已有的评价模型进行修正,以提高评价精度。基于这些大时间跨度的历史洪灾数据可以有效地验证评价成果的可靠性。评价结果符合历史山洪灾害发生地区分布事实,对古浪县山洪灾害防灾减灾、灾前预警、灾后安置及土地利用实践提供了有力的技术支持。
[Abstract]:"Mountain torrents are sudden and sudden surface runoff caused by heavy rainfall in small watershed in hilly areas. Once they occur, they will cause heavy casualties and property losses." [1] based on the characteristics and practical requirements of mountain torrents, On the basis of hydrographic analysis, the influence of human factors on mountain flood disaster is fully considered from the point of view of land use analysis. A relatively perfect index system is established by combining the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with GIS spatial analysis. In this paper, the risk of mountain torrents in arid and semi-arid mountainous areas in northern China is evaluated quantitatively, and the results are verified and corrected. The relevant research work is done from the following aspects: 1) the risk factors are analyzed from the perspective of land use. Flood control and disaster reduction projects of mountain torrents in various parts of the country, Finally, all of them are implemented in land use planning. Therefore, in the assessment of mountain flood disaster risk, the hydrographic factors in the traditional evaluation index system are taken into account in this paper. The effects of land use factors on mountain torrents are analyzed, including GDPP, road density, soil types of flood control facilities, and land use types. Population distribution and so on. The evaluation results are more conducive to guiding the land use planning for flood control and disaster reduction. (2) synthesizing multi-source data, perfecting the evaluation index system and evaluating the risk of mountain torrents based on land use analysis. Based on the multi-source data, a relatively perfect evaluation index system is established. On the one hand, the rainfall of disaster factors is comprehensively analyzed and redefined. According to the climatic characteristics and flash flood characteristics of arid areas in northern China, the rainfall data of July and August in summer are selected. Taking "maximum 24 hour rainfall", "maximum 6 hour rainfall", "maximum 1 hour rainfall" and "maximum 10 minute rainfall" as disaster factors, we make a comprehensive analysis. It is the first time to consider the present flood control capacity factor of human being, the engineering and non-engineering measures of flood control and disaster reduction, as one of the vulnerability factors, to add the mountain torrent disaster risk assessment to improve the integrity and scientific nature of the whole evaluation system. This paper attempts to take the township average GDP as an economic value index into vulnerability evaluation system. 3) to carry out the case study of small scale mountain torrents disaster in counties in arid areas of northern China. The current research on mountain torrents is mainly concentrated in the southern part of China. The Great River Basin, There is little research on mountain torrents in small watersheds in northern counties. In most areas of northern China with arid and semi-arid climates, the spatial distribution and time distribution of rainfall are extremely uneven, and the elevation of the northern mountainous areas fluctuates greatly. The vegetation coverage is relatively low in the south, which leads to the frequent occurrence of mountain torrents in extreme weather. This paper takes Gulang County, Wuwei City, Gansu Province as the research object, and carries out a case study on the county scope of mountain torrents disaster risk assessment in arid areas of northern China. It is of guiding significance to prevent and cure mountain torrents in northern China. (4) using historical mountain torrents data to verify and revise the evaluation results, the accuracy of the evaluation results is verified and corrected by using the historical mountain torrents data of nearly 50 years. On this basis, the historical mountain torrents are used as evaluation factors to modify the existing evaluation models. In order to improve the evaluation accuracy, the reliability of the evaluation results can be effectively verified on the basis of these historical flood data over a long time span. The evaluation results accord with the facts of the regional distribution of historical mountain torrents, and prevent and reduce mountain torrents in Gulang County. Pre-disaster early warning, post-disaster resettlement and land use practices provide strong technical support.
【学位授予单位】：东华理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X43

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