考虑人群拥堵的疏散出口选择行为研究及建模

发布时间：2018-03-13 01:02

本文选题：人群疏散　切入点：出口选择　出处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2016年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：出口选择是疏散过程中最重要和复杂的决策行为之一,受到空间结构、人群分布和行人认知等多方面因素的影响,为了使疏散仿真能够合理地模拟出行人的寻路和逃生过程,提出了考虑人群拥堵的出口选择模型。该模型基于多元Logit离散选择模型,考虑到影响个体疏散时间的因素以及对不同出口类型的偏好。研究发现个体的疏散时间随着拥堵人群位置的不同而有所差异,从而以决策者而不是出口的角度定义了一个计数区域来估计影响决策者排队时间的人数。并且研究出口重新选择的触发条件和程序。将出口选择模型和程序引入Building EXODUS软件进行疏散仿真,通过对比显示,仿真结果更符合真实情况,特别是在具有障碍物和人群分布不均匀的场景中更显优势。
[Abstract]:Exit selection is one of the most important and complex decision-making behaviors in the evacuation process, which is influenced by many factors, such as spatial structure, crowd distribution and pedestrian cognition. An exit selection model considering crowd congestion is proposed, which is based on the multivariate Logit discrete selection model. Considering the factors affecting individual evacuation time and preference for different exit types, the study found that individual evacuation time varies with the location of congested people. Thus, a counting area is defined to estimate the number of people who affect the queue time of the decision maker, and the trigger conditions and procedures for re-selection of the exit are studied. The export selection model and procedure are introduced. Building EXODUS software for evacuation simulation, The comparison shows that the simulation results are more consistent with the real situation, especially in the scene with obstacles and uneven crowd distribution.
【作者单位】：北京城市系统工程研究中心;北京化工大学;
【基金】：国家“十二五”科技支撑计划项目(2015BAK12B01) 北京市哲学社会科学规划项目(12JGC098,15JGC188) 国家自然科学基金项目(71203006) 教育部人文社科基金项目(15YJC630047)
【分类号】：D63;X913

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