基于GIS的北部湾经济区洪灾风险评价及风险变化研究

发布时间：2018-03-15 23:23

本文选题：GIS　切入点：洪灾风险　出处：《广西大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文以广西北部湾经济区为研究对象,主要利用GIS软件的空间分析功能,从洪灾的危险性、易损性和防洪减灾的薄弱性三个方面出发,建立了洪灾风险分析的模型及相应的指标体系,对北部湾经济区的洪灾风险进行评价。并对1996～2005年和2005～2014年两个阶段城市化与洪灾风险之间的关系进行相关分析,为有关部门决策提供依据。首先根据洪灾的形成机制,兼顾资料的可获得性,选取了汛期雨量、暴雨日数等12个指标因子作为北部湾经济区的洪灾风险评价指标体系。利用层次分析法确定了各指标因子的影响权重,然后基于GIS的空间分析功能进行组合叠加,得到1996年、2005年和2014年北部湾经济区的洪灾危险性、易损性和防洪减灾薄弱性分布情况,并对其进行了洪灾综合风险评价。结果可以看出,洪灾风险大致呈从西北向东南部地区增长趋势,东南部沿海地区受其自然和社会属性等多重影响,洪灾风险一直处于较高状态。然后将北部湾经济区洪灾风险划分为1996～2005年和2005～2014年两个阶段,分析了每个阶段各指标因子对洪灾危险性、易损性以及洪灾综合风险变化的影响程度。采用复合指数法,得到北部湾经济区各市的综合城市化率,并对其城市化水平与洪灾风险做了相关分析,发现两者具有较好的一致性,即城市化率越高的地方,洪灾风险增长的越快,城市化导致的易损性变化对区域洪灾变化具有显著影响。由以上研究结果可知,北部湾经济区历年来洪灾风险最严重的地区在东南部沿海区以及各大江河沿岸,尤其是河流交汇处的洪水叠加要格外引起注意。并且随着城市化的进一步发展,中小城市在未来将出现洪灾风险迅速增加的态势,且同时防洪减灾能力较弱,综合风险将有更大的增加幅度,需引起有关部门重视,及时采取相应的措施,防患于未然。
[Abstract]:This paper takes Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone as the research object, mainly using the spatial analysis function of GIS software, starting from three aspects: flood risk, vulnerability and the weakness of flood control and disaster mitigation. The model of flood risk analysis and the corresponding index system are established to evaluate the flood risk in Beibu Gulf Economic Zone, and the relationship between urbanization and flood risk in 1996 ~ 2005 and 2005 ~ 2014 is analyzed. First of all, according to the formation mechanism of flood disaster and taking into account the availability of data, the rainfall in flood season is selected. The rainstorm days and other 12 index factors are used as the evaluation index system of flood risk in Beibu Gulf Economic Zone. The influence weight of each index factor is determined by AHP, and then combined and superimposed based on the spatial analysis function of GIS. In 1996, 2005 and 2014, the distribution of flood risk, vulnerability and vulnerability to flood control and disaster reduction in Beibu Gulf Economic Zone were obtained, and the comprehensive flood risk assessment was carried out. The flood risk is increasing from the northwest to the southeast, and the coastal areas in the southeast are affected by their natural and social attributes. The flood risk in Beibu Gulf Economic Zone is divided into two stages from 1996 to 2005 and from 2005 to 2014. By using the composite index method, the comprehensive urbanization rate of each city in Beibu Gulf Economic Zone is obtained, and the correlation between the urbanization level and flood risk is analyzed. It is found that the higher the urbanization rate is, the faster the flood risk increases, and the vulnerability changes caused by urbanization have a significant impact on the regional flood changes. In the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone, the flood superposition in the southeast coastal areas and along the major rivers and rivers, especially the river intersections, has attracted special attention. And with the further development of urbanization, In the future, the flood risk will increase rapidly in small and medium-sized cities, and at the same time, the ability of flood control and disaster reduction will be weak, and the comprehensive risk will have a greater increase range. It is necessary for the relevant departments to pay attention to it and take appropriate measures in time to prevent the disaster.
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：P208;X43

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