气体类化学品道路运输事故风险评价

发布时间：2018-03-16 00:34

本文选题：道路运输　切入点：气体类化学品　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着全面深化改革的脚步不断推进,我国的经济发展迅速、工业化进程不断加剧。化工产业作为国民经济的支柱产业,也随之进入了高速增长阶段,工业实力迅速提升。危险化学品作为工业的主要原材料,在相关行业中得到广泛应用,不仅具有巨大的社会需求量,其道路运输量也与日俱增。但是,发展的同时也带来了不少负面影响,其中运输安全问题已经引起人们的广泛关注。并且危险化学品种类众多,性质复杂,其中气体类化学品是危害性较大的一类。因此,有必要对气体类化学品的道路运输进行深入研究,进而有针对性地提出降低运输风险的措施,保障行车安全。对2014-2015年486起道路危险化学品道路运输事故进行全面的统计,并对事故在时间、空间的分布规律进行分析,辨识运输过程中存在的影响因素。运用二项Logistic回归分析,深入研究主要影响因素对事故发生的影响,将回归分析结果作为进一步的事故风险评估中修正指标的选取依据,对风险评估中的基本事故概率进行修正。针对气体类化学品道路运输风险评估,根据国内外对风险评价方法的相关研究,以道路事故统计数据为基础,结合对事故主要影响因素的深入分析,建立以道路运输事故概率、事故后果为主要评价指标的风险评估系统。事故发生概率参考美国三大州事故概率,通过多元非线性回归的方法拟合出符合我国实际水平的道路基本事故概率。基于对统计事故影响因素的深入分析,选取导致事故发生的主要影响因素作为基本事故概率的修正因素,应用层次分析法和动态指标评价法分别计算出其权重和危险值,从而得出修正系数,使得评估结果更加客观真实。运用ALOHA软件计算事故后果,以液化石油气为例模拟气体类危险化学品泄露的扩散状态,并考虑运量对事故后果的影响,分析事故发生后不同事故情景下的综合影响范围。将影响范围与事故路段所属行政区域的人口密度结合,最终确定死亡人数。将事故后果等级按照《生产安全事故报告和调查处理条例》划分等级,进而对人口密度、运量进行K-means聚类,并根据对应的事故等级,形成事故后果严重度矩阵。最后将事故严重度矩阵与事故概率结合,形成三维事故风险矩阵。通过模糊逻辑对事故概率和事故后果进行综合风险评估,并采取相应降低事故风险的措施及建议。并以某气体类危险化学品运输企业的实际运输路线为例进行道路运输风险评估,验证该方法在具有实际可操作性。
[Abstract]:With the step of deepening the reform in an all-round way, China's economy is developing rapidly and the industrialization process is getting worse. As a pillar industry of the national economy, the chemical industry has also entered the stage of rapid growth. As the main raw materials of industry, hazardous chemicals are widely used in related industries, which not only have huge social demand, but also increase the volume of road transportation. At the same time, the development has brought a lot of negative effects, among which, transportation safety has aroused widespread concern. There are many kinds of dangerous chemicals and their properties are complex, among which gaseous chemicals are the most harmful. It is necessary to conduct an in-depth study on road transport of gaseous chemicals, and then propose targeted measures to reduce transport risks and ensure road safety. A comprehensive statistical analysis of 486 road hazardous chemical road traffic accidents in 2014-2015, By analyzing the time and space distribution of the accident and identifying the influencing factors in the transportation process, the influence of the main influencing factors on the occurrence of the accident is studied by using binomial Logistic regression analysis. The result of regression analysis is used as the basis for selecting the revised index in the further accident risk assessment, and the basic accident probability in the risk assessment is revised. According to the related research on risk assessment methods at home and abroad, based on the statistical data of road accidents, combined with the in-depth analysis of the main influencing factors of accidents, the probability of road transportation accidents is established. A risk assessment system in which the accident consequence is the main evaluation index. The accident probability refers to the accident probability of the three major states of the United States. The probability of road accidents in accordance with the actual level of our country is fitted by the method of multivariate nonlinear regression. Based on the in-depth analysis of the influencing factors of statistical accidents, Selecting the main influencing factors that lead to the accident as the correction factor of the basic accident probability, using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the dynamic index evaluation method to calculate the weight and the dangerous value respectively, thus the correction coefficient is obtained. Using ALOHA software to calculate the accident consequence, taking liquefied petroleum gas as an example to simulate the diffusion state of the gas dangerous chemical leakage, and considering the influence of transportation quantity on the accident consequence. Analyze the comprehensive influence range of different accident scenarios after the accident. Combine the influence range with the population density of the administrative area of the accident section, Finally determine the number of deaths. According to the "production Safety accident report and investigation and handling regulations", the accident consequence level is classified, and then the population density and transportation volume are clustered by K-means, and according to the corresponding accident grade, Finally, combining the accident severity matrix with the accident probability, the three-dimensional accident risk matrix is formed. The comprehensive risk assessment of the accident probability and the accident consequence is carried out through fuzzy logic. The corresponding measures and suggestions to reduce the accident risk are taken, and taking the actual transportation route of a gas dangerous chemical transportation enterprise as an example, the risk assessment of road transportation is carried out, and it is verified that the method is practical and feasible.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U492.81;U491.31

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