基于灰色关联分析法的空管危险源辨识方法研究

发布时间：2018-03-20 11:18

本文选题：安全管理工程　切入点：危险源辨识　出处：《安全与环境学报》2015年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：随着民航事业的迅速发展和空中交通流量的不断增长。为有效地避免空管不安全事件的发生,辨识出空管运行中潜在危险源至关重要。目前空管单位缺乏对危险源的有效分类,对危险源的触发机制要素界定不够清晰。利用危险三角形对危险进行描述,并用MSHEL模型对空管运行中首类危险源——管制"错误、遗忘、疏漏"的触发机制进行分类辨识与分析。构建了管制"错误、遗忘、疏漏"危险源辨识指标体系,一级指标5个,二级指标20个;运用灰色关联分析法计算出各类触发机制之间的关联系数和关联度。结果表明,人的因素是导致管制"错误、遗忘、疏漏"发生的最主要因素,而其中最主要的触发机制要素是个人能力问题。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of civil aviation and the continuous increase of air traffic flow, it is very important to identify the potential danger sources in the operation of air traffic control in order to effectively avoid the occurrence of unsafe events in air traffic control. At present, there is a lack of effective classification of dangerous sources in air traffic control units. The definition of the trigger mechanism of dangerous source is not clear enough. The hazard is described by using the dangerous triangle, and the first type of dangerous source-control error in the operation of air traffic control is described by MSHEL model. The trigger mechanism of omissions is classified and identified and analyzed. The index system of risk source identification is constructed, which includes 5 first-class indexes and 20 second-level indexes. The correlation coefficient and correlation degree between all kinds of trigger mechanisms are calculated by using grey correlation analysis. The results show that human factors are the most important factors that lead to the occurrence of "mistakes, forgetting, omissions" in regulation. The most important trigger mechanism is personal ability.
【作者单位】：中国民航飞行学院空管学院;中国民航飞行学院空管中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金委与中国民用航空局联合资助项目(U1433126) 民航局科技项目(MHRD20140213;20150203) 中国民航飞行学院科研基金项目(J2014-63)
【分类号】：V355;V328

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