船舶安全航行实用台风浪场快速确定方法

发布时间：2018-03-25 12:15

本文选题：台风浪场　切入点：确定方法　出处：《大连海事大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：目前,中国各大远洋运输公司船舶驾驶员和公司海务安全管理人员在制定避台方案时,主要参考日本JMH发布的7级和10级大风范围、台风中心附近的气压和船舶到台风中心的距离这三个要素,通常不考虑台风浪场,而台风浪场的破坏性和重要性也不容忽视。因此,为了补充和完善船舶避台方案,辅助船舶更加安全、经济地避台,本文提出了船舶避台实用台风浪场的快速确定方法。本文横向对比了中国国家海洋环境预报中心和日本气象厅对以往6个台风的海浪预报精度(3m和4m浪场),分析了台风浪场和风场之间的关系,基于包络线原理提出了快速确定台风浪场的方法,即中日包络线综合浪场,并在忽略风场、气压、距离三要素,只考虑浪场因素的条件下,对1415号台风“海鸥”活动期间的台风浪场使用该方法进行了两次船舶避台模拟。得到如下主要结论：(1)就对这6个台风的海浪预报而言,从总体平均预报精度上看,日本预报的更准确,但从单次预报精度上看,有些时候中国预报的更准确。但以往预报准确率的高低不能代表未来的预报水平,因此,建议船舶要综合参考中国和日本的海浪预报。(2)对同一台风同一天浪场和风场的预报,无论是中国还是日本,其单独风圈、综合风圈都与综合浪圈相交,有很大一部分浪场区域是风场没有覆盖到的。这说明船舶避台只考虑风场是不够的、不完全的,浪场也应该考虑。(3)实例1中船舶只参考中国的海浪预报避台失败,而参考中日综合浪场重新设计航线避台成功；实例2中船舶只参考日本的海浪预报避台失败,而参考中日综合浪场重新设计航线避台成功。两次模拟中的正例和反例鲜明有力地论证了本文提出的快速确定台风浪场的方法具有一定的实用性和可行性,如果将其补充到“三要素”避台方案中,可以帮助船舶更加安全、经济地避台。
[Abstract]:At present, the ship pilots of the major ocean shipping companies in China and the marine safety management personnel of the companies mainly refer to the level 7 and 10 gale ranges issued by the Japanese JMH when formulating the sheltering plan. The atmospheric pressure near the typhoon center and the distance between the ship and the typhoon center are three factors, which are usually not considered, and the destructive and importance of the typhoon wave field can not be ignored. Therefore, in order to supplement and perfect the ship avoidance scheme, Auxiliary ships are safer and more economical to avoid the platform, In this paper, a fast method for determining the wave field of practical typhoon for ship avoidance is put forward. The wave field accuracy of 3 m and 4 m for the past 6 typhoons by the National Marine Environment Forecast Center of China and the Japan Meteorological Agency are compared in this paper. The relationship between typhoon wave field and wind field, Based on the principle of envelope line, a fast method for determining typhoon wave field is put forward, that is, the integrated wave field of Chinese and Japanese envelope line. The wind field, air pressure and distance are ignored, and only wave field factors are considered. The typhoon wave field during typhoon 1415 "seagull" activity is simulated twice by using this method. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) in terms of the overall average prediction accuracy of the six typhoons, the main conclusions are as follows: 1. Japan's forecast is more accurate, but in terms of the accuracy of a single forecast, sometimes China's forecast is more accurate. However, the level of accuracy in the past does not represent the level of future forecasts, so, It is suggested that the ship should make a comprehensive reference to the wave forecast of China and Japan) and forecast the wave field and wind field of the same typhoon on the same day. Whether in China or Japan, the single wind circle and the integrated wind circle are intersected with the integrated wave wave. A large part of the wave field area is not covered by the wind field. This shows that it is not enough for the ship to consider the wind field only, and the wave field should also be considered. In case 2, the ship only refers to the failure of Japan's wave forecast avoidance. With reference to the comprehensive wave field between China and Japan, the route avoidance has been successfully redesigned. The positive and negative examples in the two simulations demonstrate clearly and forcefully that the method proposed in this paper for fast determination of typhoon wave field has certain practicability and feasibility. If it is added to the "three elements" scheme, it can help the ship to avoid the platform more safely and economically.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U698

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