煤矿事故风险因子耦合作用分析及其耦合风险的仿真研究

发布时间：2018-03-25 20:07

本文选题：煤矿安全　切入点：风险耦合　出处：《中国矿业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来，我国煤矿事故频发，事故的发生不仅造成了巨大的经济损失而且产生了不良的社会影响。然而煤矿事故的发生并不是单一因素作用的结果，而是多种因素相互作用、相互影响，从而导致事故的发生。这就要求在进行分析煤矿企业风险水平的时候，不仅要系统分析煤矿事故单个因素的作用，，还要综合分析煤矿系统各因素之间的耦合作用。论文在以大量文献的基础上，首先对风险的内涵和特征进行了解，明白了煤矿事故风险与其它风险的共通性和特殊性，在此基础上，分析煤矿事故风险耦合的内涵，给出了煤矿事故风险耦合的定义，并对按照不同的作用方式对风险耦合进行分类，又进一步说明了煤矿企业最担心的正耦合的形成机理。其次,分析了煤矿事故同质因素和异质因素耦合的因果关系，分析出了四个子系统之间的相互作用的规律，为我们更好的分析煤矿事故风险产生的原因提供一个平台。再利用耦合度模型对煤矿四个子系统之间的耦合作用大小进行度量，这样我们就能够定量的分析出风险因素之间的耦合程度的大小。然后,应用系统动力学(SD)的理论和建模方法,建立了相应的煤矿人-管系统仿真模型,运行系统动力学仿真软件Vensim-PLE进行仿真。以关键因素的耦合度为例,调整不同关键因素耦合度系数,仿真观测耦合度系数与人-管系统风险水平的相关度,并提出了多种决策方案,应用具体案例加以对比分析,预测煤矿风险水平的未来发展趋势,有助于煤矿事故防范长效机制的建立。最后,引入解耦合的思想，提出相应的管理策略，以便有效地管理和控制煤矿事故耦合风险的产生。
[Abstract]:In recent years, coal mine accidents occur frequently in our country. The accidents not only cause huge economic losses but also produce bad social effects. However, the occurrence of coal mine accidents is not the result of a single factor, but the interaction of many factors. When analyzing the risk level of coal mine enterprises, we should analyze not only the action of single factor of coal mine accident, but also the coupling effect of each factor in coal mine system. On the basis of a large number of documents, this paper first understands the connotation and characteristics of the risk, and then understands the commonness and particularity between the risk of coal mine accident and other risks. On this basis, it analyzes the connotation of the coupling of the risk of coal mine accident. The definition of coal mine accident risk coupling is given, and the risk coupling is classified according to different action modes, and the formation mechanism of positive coupling which is most worried by coal mine enterprises is further explained. Secondly, the causality of the coupling of homogeneous factors and heterogeneous factors in coal mine accidents is analyzed, and the law of interaction between the four subsystems is analyzed. It provides a platform for us to better analyze the causes of coal mine accident risk. The coupling degree model is used to measure the coupling effect between the four subsystems of coal mine. In this way, we can quantitatively analyze the degree of coupling between risk factors. Then, applying the theory and modeling method of system dynamics (SDD), the corresponding simulation model of man-pipe system in coal mine is established, and the simulation software Vensim-PLE is run. The coupling degree of key factors is taken as an example. The coupling coefficient of different key factors is adjusted and the correlation between coupling degree coefficient and risk level of man-tube system is observed by simulation. Predicting the future development trend of coal mine risk level is helpful to the establishment of long effect mechanism of coal mine accident prevention. Finally, the idea of decoupling is introduced, and the corresponding management strategy is put forward in order to manage and control the coupling risk of coal mine accidents effectively.
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TD77

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