基于风险熵的化工园区事故风险突变模型研究

发布时间：2018-03-25 21:07

本文选题：风险熵　切入点：化工园区　出处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2017年10期

【摘要】：为准确判断化工园区事故风险演化进程,基于风险熵理论分析化工园区系统风险状态,从影响园区系统风险熵的不同因素出发,根据化工园区公共区域和企业端的各自特点建立风险熵指标;利用尖点突变理论,用矩阵表征多参数多时刻的风险熵增和熵减值,建立化工园区熵增、熵减计算模型;根据计算结果判断事故风险状态。将所提出的方法应用于某化工园区,结果表明:在该园区某危化品储存企业丁二烯泄漏情况下园区系统风险熵发生突变,由泄漏引发二次事故的风险骤升,需要采取相应安全措施。分析结果与实际情况相符合。
[Abstract]:In order to accurately judge the evolution process of accident risk in chemical park, based on the theory of risk entropy, the risk state of chemical park system is analyzed, and the different factors that affect the system risk entropy of chemical park are discussed. The risk entropy index is established according to the characteristics of the common area and the enterprise end of the chemical industry park, and the calculation model of entropy increase and entropy decrease in the chemical industry park is established by using the cusp mutation theory and the matrix to represent the risk entropy increase and entropy decrease of multi-parameter and multi-time. According to the calculation results, the accident risk state is judged. The proposed method is applied to a chemical industry park. The results show that the risk entropy of the park system changes under the condition of butadiene leakage in a dangerous chemical storage enterprise in the park. It is necessary to take corresponding safety measures for the sudden rise of the risk of the secondary accident caused by the leakage. The results of the analysis are in accordance with the actual situation.
【作者单位】：华南理工大学安全科学与工程研究所;惠州大亚湾应急管理有限公司;
【基金】：广东省安全生产专项资金项目(2016-48) 广东省信息产业发展专项资金项目(粤经信软信[2013]279号)
【分类号】：X928

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