大连辖区水上交通事故研究

发布时间：2018-03-28 18:50

本文选题：大连辖区　切入点：水上交通事故　出处：《大连海事大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文是在大连辖区2001-2012年水上交通事故的历史数据基础上,分别运用了海事统计分析方法和自适应过滤预测模型对其进行合理的分析研究。文章对水上交通事故进行科学的定义,充分的研究了该领域的研究现状,并根据水上交通事故的特征选用海事统计分析方法和自适应过滤预测模型。在根据《水上交通事故统计办法》对水上交通事故进行事故类别和等级的划分后,文章总结出水上交通事故的特点并从“船舶、环境、人员、管理”这些因素分析引起水上交通事故的基本要素。由于水上交通事故具有危害严重、损失巨大、规律性、随机性和偶然性以及小概率性这些特点,因此对水上交通事故进行相应的特征分析研究,找出了大连辖区水上交通事故的特有规律：主要事故等级为小事故,占70%；事故集中发生在每年的第二季度,尤其是5、6月份；而在各类事故中碰撞事故就最高,占了50%,且主要事故发生在普通货船上；同时,能见度良好时发生的事故远高于能见度不良,达74%；在地域上,事故集中发生在港区内水域和大小三山水道、老铁山水道等特殊水域。接着,文章对大连辖区水域交通事故进行科学合理地预测,用已收集的2001-2012年大连辖区水上交通事故相关历史数据,运用自适应过滤预测模型原理,通过C++语言编程实现自适应过滤预测模型的自动化,先分别对2011年和2012年大连辖区各类水上交通事故进行预测,误差分析,得出不论是各类事故每年的相对误差还是这两年总的相对误差都小于0.5,并且一般事故和重大事故2011年的预测误差以及大事故2011-2012年的预测误差都达到了0。因此,该模型的预测精度基本满足对大连辖区水上交通事故的有效预测。最后对2013年大连辖区水上交通事故进行科学预测,并提出一些相应的建议。
[Abstract]:Based on the historical data of water traffic accidents in Dalian area from 2001 to 2012, this paper makes a reasonable analysis and research on the maritime traffic accidents by using the statistical analysis method and the adaptive filter forecasting model, and defines the maritime traffic accidents scientifically in this paper. The current situation of the research in this field is fully studied. According to the characteristics of water traffic accidents, the maritime statistical analysis method and adaptive filter prediction model are selected. This paper summarizes the characteristics of water traffic accidents and analyzes the basic factors that cause water traffic accidents from the factors of "ship, environment, personnel and management". Because of the randomness, randomness and small probability, the characteristics of water traffic accidents are analyzed and studied, and the special law of water traffic accidents in Dalian area is found out: the main accident grade is small accident, The accidents were concentrated in the second quarter of each year, especially in May and June. Among all kinds of accidents, collision accidents were the highest, accounting for 50 percent, and the major accidents occurred on ordinary cargo ships. At the same time, Accidents that occur when visibility is good are much higher than those with poor visibility, reaching 74x; geographically, accidents occur mainly in the waters of the port area and in special waters such as the Sanshanshui Road and the Laotie Mountain Waterway. Then, This paper makes a scientific and reasonable prediction of the traffic accidents in the waters of Dalian jurisdiction. Using the historical data collected from 2001 to 2012, the principle of adaptive filter prediction model is used. Through C language programming to realize the automation of adaptive filter prediction model, first of all, forecast all kinds of water traffic accidents in Dalian area in 2011 and 2012, error analysis, It is concluded that the relative error of each type of accident is less than 0.5 per year or the total relative error of these two years is less than 0.5, and the prediction error of general accident and major accident in 2011 and 2011-2012 of major accident are all 0. The prediction accuracy of the model is basically satisfied with the effective prediction of the water traffic accident in Dalian area. Finally, the scientific prediction of the water traffic accident in the Dalian area in 2013 is carried out, and some corresponding suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U698.6

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