“一带一路”沿线地区煤矿企业基建项目风险发生概率预测研究

发布时间：2018-03-29 13:51

本文选题：“一带一路”沿线地区　切入点：能源基建项目　出处：《中国煤炭》2017年11期

【摘要】：依据"一带一路"沿线地区风险发生不确定性的产生根源,将煤矿企业基建过程中的风险进行分类与识别,提出"一带一路"沿线地区煤矿企业基建活动的风险包括自然风险、文化宗教风险、市场风险、外协条件风险等11类风险及39个风险影响因素,并构建了风险发生概率的预测指标体系。利用CMAC神经网络理论,结合人工鱼群算法构建了风险发生概率预测模型,选取孟加拉国巴拉普库利亚煤矿基建过程中2013-2017年风险发生概率样本,对风险发生概率模型进行验证及风险发生概率进行预测。这对后续在"一带一路"沿线地区煤矿企业基建活动的风险预测与风险管控起到一定的参考作用。
[Abstract]:According to the origin of the uncertainty of risk in the area along Belt and Road, the paper classifies and identifies the risk in the process of capital construction of coal mine enterprise, and puts forward that the risk of the capital construction activity of coal mine enterprise in the area along the line of "Belt and Road" includes natural risk. There are 11 kinds of risk, such as cultural and religious risk, market risk, extrinsic conditional risk, and 39 risk influencing factors. The prediction index system of risk occurrence probability is constructed. The CMAC neural network theory is used to predict the risk occurrence probability. Combined with artificial fish swarm algorithm, the probability prediction model of risk occurrence is constructed, and the probability sample of risk occurrence during 2013-2017 is selected in the process of construction of Bharapu Kuliya coal mine in Bangladesh. This paper verifies the probability model of risk occurrence and forecasts the probability of risk occurrence, which plays a certain reference role in the risk prediction and risk control of the capital construction activities of coal mine enterprises in the area along Belt and Road.
【作者单位】：西安科技大学管理学院;西安科技大学能源学院;西安科技大学安全管理研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71273208、71271169) 陕西省教育厅项目(14JK1445、14JZ026、15JZ036) 陕西省社科基金项目(2015R043) 西安科技大学项目(2013SY01、2014SX07、2012SZ01、15BY46)
【分类号】：F416.21;TD77

【相似文献】