安全风险集中度研究

发布时间：2018-04-04 20:37

本文选题：复杂系统　切入点：安全风险　出处：《沈阳航空航天大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着科学技术水平的提高,系统的性能及功能越来越强大,结构越来越复杂,进而导致对系统的安全性要求也不断提高。然而,传统的安全风险分析方法往往以最终系统风险值来表征系统的安全状况,这样既不能揭示其风险状况的本质,也不能准确的分析出较复杂系统的安全风险,进而无法找出系统的薄弱环节,提出科学的控制措施。因此,安全风险分析的理论和方法亟待完善。因此,本文基于系统整体性原则,提出了安全风险集中度的概念,旨在利用安全风险集中度和系统风险值来共同揭示系统的安全性。安全风险集中度是用来描述风险分布情况的指标。本文以传统安全性分析理论为基础,根据研究目的并结合复杂系统自身特征,认为整个系统风险分布情况是由各单元对系统风险的影响程度、各风险单元满足其风险可接受水平的程度以及各单元对系统相关性风险的贡献度三个因素共同影响。同时借鉴风险评价指数法的思想,对系统安全风险集中度进行定性分析。进而构建安全风险集中度数学模型:首先,对系统内部各单元的风险性质及可能导致的事故类型进行分析。利用事故发生的可能性和严重性对风险进行表达,从而求得某一事故类型下各单元对系统风险的影响。再利用层次分析法,分析系统可能导致的所有事故的权重,进而对每一事故类型下的单元影响程度进行加权叠加。最终求得各单元对系统风险的影响程度;其次,利用灰色关联理论确定各单元之间的风险相关性,进而求得影响安全风险集中度的第二因素,即单元对系统相关性风险的贡献度;接着,根据ALARP原则,确定各风险单元满足其风险可接受水平的程度。最后,利用乘法原理,对影响安全风险集中度的三个因素的数学表达式进行合成,构成安全风险集中度数学模型。并以化工园区为实例,对数学模型的有效性进行验证。
[Abstract]:With the improvement of science and technology, the performance and function of the system are becoming more and more powerful, and the structure is becoming more and more complex.However, the traditional security risk analysis methods often use the final system risk value to represent the security situation of the system, which can neither reveal the nature of the risk situation nor accurately analyze the security risk of the more complex system.Then the weak links of the system can not be found, and scientific control measures are put forward.Therefore, the theory and method of safety risk analysis need to be improved.Therefore, based on the principle of system integrity, this paper puts forward the concept of security risk concentration, which aims to reveal the security of the system by using the security risk concentration and the system risk value.Security risk concentration is used to describe the risk distribution.Based on the traditional safety analysis theory, according to the purpose of the research and the characteristics of the complex system, this paper considers that the risk distribution of the whole system is the influence degree of each unit on the system risk.The degree to which each risk unit meets its acceptable risk level and the contribution of each unit to system-dependent risk are affected together.At the same time, using the idea of risk evaluation index method, the system security risk concentration degree is qualitatively analyzed.Then the mathematical model of safety risk concentration degree is constructed. Firstly, the risk nature of each unit in the system and the possible accident types are analyzed.The possibility and severity of the accident are used to express the risk, and the influence of each unit on the system risk under a certain accident type is obtained.Then the weight of all possible accidents caused by the system is analyzed by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and then the influence degree of the unit under each type of accident is weighted superimposed.Finally, the influence degree of each unit on the system risk is obtained. Secondly, the risk correlation among each unit is determined by using the grey relational theory, and the second factor that affects the concentration of security risk is obtained.Then, according to the ALARP principle, the degree to which each risk unit meets its acceptable risk level is determined.Finally, the mathematical expressions of three factors affecting the concentration degree of safety risk are synthesized by using the multiplication principle, and the mathematical model of the safety risk concentration degree is constructed.The validity of the mathematical model is verified by taking the chemical park as an example.
【学位授予单位】：沈阳航空航天大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X913

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