基于风险评估及突变理论的煤层底板突水危险性预测

发布时间：2018-04-05 09:38

本文选题：煤层底板突水　切入点：风险评价方法　出处：《中国矿业大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：我国华北型煤田水害问题普遍严重，特别是主采煤层底板奥陶系灰岩含水层突水多次造成重大的人员伤亡和财产损失。煤层底板突水的预测预报和风险评价是矿井水害防治和实现安全开采的基本前提与重要基础，尽管目前的相关研究成果较多，但在预测结果的准确性、可靠性、实用性等方面仍然存在一定的问题，，以致在实际应用中仍以突水系数法为主。因此，本文以曾发生由于揭露小断层导致的二1煤底板奥灰特大突水事故的新安矿为例，开展煤层底板突水风险科学的评价方法的研究，有重要的理论和现实意义。本文在分析矿井底板突水的形成条件及影响因素的基础上，提出了底板突水风险评价方法之风险拟合法并研究了突变理论法。风险拟合法即以风险理论为基础建立煤层底板突水风险评价模型进行底板突水风险评价的方法。风险拟合法从风险理论出发，推导出底板突水风险数学表达式，利用多元线性回归方法，根据矿区已知突水点信息拟合表达式系数，建立评价模型。利用ArcGIS多源信息融合功能对相关风险影响因素量化值专题图依据评价模型进行复合叠加，根据叠加结果进行底板突水风险评价。突变理论法即以突变理论为基础建立煤层底板突水风险评价模型进行底板突水风险评价的方法。突变理论法通过研究底板突水的突变机理确定状态变量和主次控制变量，依据尖点突变模型提出平衡曲面方程，通过坐标变换得到新坐标系下（状态变量、主次控制变量坐标系）平衡曲面方程的表达方式。利用新坐标轴性质构建方程组求解平衡曲面方程的系数和新坐标系原点的位置，利用已知突水点信息验证求解结果的合理性。依据新坐标系下平衡曲面方程根的判别式，建立突水风险评价模型，进行底板突水风险评价。本文应用风险拟合法、突变理论法以及脆弱性指数法和突水系数法四种方法分别评价新安矿二1煤底板突水风险并进行对比，除突水系数法以外，其它三种方法的评价结果均与实际突水点位置拟合较好。本文的研究成果有助于认识煤层底板突水异常复杂的机理，同时对于深部高承压水上安全开采以及矿井底板突水的中长期预测预报具有一定的理论意义和实践价值。
[Abstract]:The problem of water disaster in North China coal field is very serious, especially the water inrush of Ordovician limestone aquifer in the floor of main coal seam has caused heavy casualties and property losses for many times.The prediction and risk assessment of water inrush from coal seam floor is the basic premise and important foundation of preventing and controlling mine water hazard and realizing safe mining. Although there are many related research results at present, the accuracy and reliability of the prediction results are obtained.There are still some problems in practicability, so the water inrush coefficient method is still the main method in practical application.Therefore, this paper takes Xinan Coal Mine, which happened in Xinan Coal Mine, which was caused by exposing small faults, as an example, to carry out a scientific evaluation method of water inrush from coal seam floor, which has important theoretical and practical significance.On the basis of analyzing the forming conditions and influencing factors of water inrush from mine floor, this paper puts forward the risk fitting method for evaluating the risk of water inrush from bottom plate and studies the catastrophe theory method.The risk fitting method is based on the risk theory to establish a risk assessment model for water inrush from coal seam floor to evaluate the risk of water inrush on the floor.Based on the risk theory, the mathematical expression of water inrush risk of floor plate is deduced. The evaluation model is established by using multiple linear regression method and fitting coefficient according to the information of water inrush point in mining area.The multi-source information fusion function of ArcGIS is used to compound superposition the quantitative value of related risk factors according to the evaluation model and to evaluate the risk of water inrush on the floor according to the superposition results.The catastrophe theory method is based on the catastrophe theory to establish a risk assessment model for water inrush from coal seam floor.The catastrophe theory method determines the state variable and the primary and secondary control variable by studying the abrupt mechanism of water inrush from the bottom plate. According to the cusp catastrophe model, the equilibrium surface equation is put forward, and the new coordinate system (state variable) is obtained by coordinate transformation.The expression of equilibrium surface equation in the coordinate system of primary and secondary control variables.The coefficients of the equations and the position of the origin of the new coordinate system are constructed by using the properties of the new coordinate axis, and the rationality of the solution results is verified by using the information of the known water inrush points.According to the discriminant of the equation root of equilibrium surface in the new coordinate system, the risk evaluation model of water inrush is established, and the risk evaluation of water inrush on the bottom plate is carried out.In this paper, risk fitting method, catastrophe theory method, vulnerability index method and water inrush coefficient method are used to evaluate and compare the risk of water inrush from coal floor of No. 2 1 coal mine in Xinan Mine, except for the method of water inrush coefficient.The evaluation results of the other three methods all fit well with the location of the actual water inrush point.The research results of this paper are helpful to understand the complicated mechanism of water inrush from coal seam floor, and also have certain theoretical significance and practical value for safe mining of deep high pressure water and medium and long term prediction of mine floor water inrush.
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TD745

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