煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害风险模式识别与预警研究

发布时间：2018-04-06 02:25

本文选题：风险评估　切入点：风险预测　出处：《中南大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：摘要：煤炭开采是中国最危险行业,尤以瓦斯爆炸灾害以其破坏性强、经济损失大、人员伤亡多等显著特点对煤矿安全生产造成严重危害。论文针对瓦斯爆炸灾害预控中存在的薄弱环节,运用安全科学、系统科学、风险管理科学、信息科学、计算机科学与工程以及矿山安全等相关理论,采用理论研究、数值分析、现场观测和计算机应用相结合的方法,研究瓦斯爆炸灾害风险识别与预警体系,对实现煤矿安全生产系统风险“早期识别”和事故“事先预防”、提高煤矿本质安全化水平、促进煤矿安全生产及煤炭工业的安全可持续发展等具有重要的意义。 (1)针对现有煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害预控管理理论与方法体系尚不完善等问题,提出了从风险辨识、监控、分级、评估、预测、预警、对策等一体化视角建立瓦斯爆炸灾害风险识别与预警对策的灾害预控体系。 (2)对大量瓦斯灾害事故案例进行了统计分析,获得了事故特征与统计规律及时序分形特性；针对瓦斯爆炸灾害中瓦斯涌出与积聚和引爆火源产生等核心问题,对瓦斯涌出与积聚、引爆火源、引爆地点等典型特征进行了分类研究,通过大量瓦斯爆炸事故案例分析获得了瓦斯爆炸灾害典型特征规律与耦合规律,并提出了有效减少瓦斯爆炸事故发生的有关建议和措施。 (3)系统探讨了风险管理理论、技术与方法,将风险管理理论引入到煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害事故预控中,建立了瓦斯爆炸事故演化的因果链和风险分析模型,构建了瓦斯爆炸灾害风险识别与预警的体系框架,并对风险识别与预警体系构建的内容和程序进行了系统论述。 (4)针对煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害风险源的多样性与复杂性以及监测信源与信息的多样性和复杂性,对风险信息源进行了系统研究和分类；建立了信息采集、多源信息耦合、风险评估与预警、预控对策与响应等的风险识别与预警信息平台架构。 (5)针对煤矿安全生产系统具有的非线性动力学特性,对矿井瓦斯爆炸灾害风险因素进行了系统辨识并划分了逻辑单元,建立了完善的层次结构风险指标体系和风险分级体系；提出了区间线性化方法对指标信息无量纲化方法的改进；阐述了风险识别与预警关键指标“一票否决制”的独立指标变权评估与预警机制。 (6)将模式识别理论、技术与方法引入到煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害风险管理中,系统研究了瓦斯爆炸灾害风险模式识别的基本原理、内容、技术与方法,构建了瓦斯爆炸灾害风险模式识别系统；提出了单项指标分段功效函数对EMC进行改进,建立了基于IAHP-ECM的瓦斯爆炸灾害风险模式识别模型,同时还应用DTW模板匹配技术、小样本学习SVM理论和PSO算法等构建基于DTW和基于PSO-SVM的瓦斯爆炸灾害风险模式识别模型,并对上述模型进行了性能检验与应用。 (7)系统研究了瓦斯爆炸灾害风险预测的基本原理和过程、预测的内容和预测技术与方法,建立了煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害单项风险预测和综合风险预测的基础数学模型；构建了瓦斯涌出量预测的GM(1,1)模型、残差GM(1,1)模型、等维信息GM(1,1)模型、AP(p)模型、以及与SVM结合的组合预测模型等,并对上述模型分别进行了性能检验与应用。 (8)系统研究了瓦斯爆炸灾害风险预警的程序与内容和风险预警等级与预警阀值设置,提出了风险因素观测值和风险水平的时间梯度是风险预警的重要组成部分；研究了瓦斯浓度超限报警机制与技术和瓦斯浓度梯度报警机制与技术,建立了基于Elman的瓦斯浓度预警模型和基于PNN的瓦斯爆炸灾害风险综合预警模型,并分别进行了模型性能检验与应用。论文针对煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害风险预控中存在的薄弱环节,在国家自然科学基金资助项目(51274100)等资助下,运用多学科交叉理论进行了瓦斯爆炸灾害风险识别与预警体系的构建与应用研究,有较高的学术研究价值和推广应用前景。
[Abstract]:Abstract : Coal mining is one of the most dangerous industries in China , especially in gas explosion disaster with its destructive strength , large economic loss and many casualties . The paper studies the risk identification and early warning system of gas explosion disaster by combining theory research , numerical analysis , field observation and computer application . It is of great significance to realize the early identification of the risk of coal mine safety production system and the prevention of accident , improve the safety level of coal mine , promote the safety of coal mine safety and the sustainable development of coal industry .

( 1 ) Aiming at the problems of the existing coal mine gas explosion disaster pre - control management theory and method system , this paper puts forward a disaster prevention pre - control system based on the integrated visual angle of risk identification , monitoring , grading , evaluation , forecasting , early warning and countermeasure .

( 2 ) Statistical analysis of a large number of accident cases of gas disasters is carried out , and the fractal characteristics of accident characteristics and statistical laws in time are obtained ;
According to the core problems such as gas emission and accumulation and the generation of fire source in gas explosion disaster , the typical characteristics of gas emission and accumulation , ignition source and detonation location are classified and studied . The typical characteristics and coupling rules of gas explosion disaster are obtained through the case analysis of gas explosion accidents , and some suggestions and measures are put forward to reduce the occurrence of gas explosion accidents .

( 3 ) The risk management theory , technology and method are discussed in this paper . The risk management theory is introduced into the pre - control of coal mine gas explosion disaster , the causal chain and risk analysis model of gas explosion accident evolution is established , the system framework of risk identification and early warning of gas explosion disaster is constructed , and the content and procedure of risk identification and early warning system are discussed .

( 4 ) To study and classify the risk information source based on the diversity and complexity of the mine gas explosion disaster risk source and the diversity and complexity of monitoring the source and information ;
Information acquisition , multi - source information coupling , risk assessment and early warning , pre - control strategy and response are established .

( 5 ) Aiming at the nonlinear dynamic characteristics of coal mine safety production system , the risk factors of mine gas explosion disaster are systematically identified and divided into logical units , and a perfect hierarchy risk index system and risk classification system are established ;
This paper presents the improvement of the method of interval linearization to the dimensionless method of index information .
This paper expounds the independent index change right assessment and early warning mechanism of risk identification and early warning key index " one - vote veto system " .

( 6 ) The theory , technology and method of pattern recognition are introduced into the risk management of coal mine gas explosion disaster , and the basic principle , content , technology and method of gas explosion disaster risk pattern recognition are studied .
This paper proposes an improved model of risk pattern recognition based on IAHP - ECM based on IAHP - ECM , and also applies DTW template matching technology , small sample learning SVM theory and PSO algorithm to build a model of risk pattern recognition based on DTW and PSO - SVM .

( 7 ) The basic principle and process of gas explosion disaster risk prediction are studied systematically , the content and prediction technology and method are predicted , and the basic mathematical model of single risk prediction and comprehensive risk prediction of coal mine gas explosion disaster is established .
The GM ( 1,1 ) model , the residual GM ( 1,1 ) model , the equal dimension information GM ( 1,1 ) model , the AP ( p ) model , and the combined prediction model combined with the SVM are constructed , and the performance test and application of the model are carried out respectively .

( 8 ) The system studies the procedure and content of the risk early warning of gas explosion disaster and the warning level of risk early warning and the setting of warning threshold value , and puts forward that the time gradient of risk factor observation value and risk level is an important part of risk early warning ;
Based on Elman - based gas concentration warning model and PNN - based comprehensive early - warning model of gas explosion disaster risk , the gas concentration - limit alarm mechanism and technology and gas concentration gradient alarm mechanism are studied , and the model performance test and application are carried out respectively .

In view of the weak links existing in the risk pre - control of coal mine gas explosion disaster , the construction and application of the risk identification and early warning system of gas explosion disaster are carried out under the financing of the national natural science fund ( 51274100 ) and so on , which has higher academic research value and popularization and application prospect .

【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TD712.7

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