化工园区生产安全免疫机理与模型及免疫力评估研究

发布时间：2018-04-12 07:47

本文选题：化工园区 + 生产安全　；参考：《华南理工大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：化工园区已成为国内外石油化工产业发展的主流模式，在产生“集聚”效益的同时，带来了区域的高风险，并可能发生危害巨大的化工事故。因此，化工园区必须定期进行自我“诊断”：隐患排查和风险评估，采取措施抵御和控制风险，以提高化工园区生产安全“免疫力”。加强化工园区生产安全事故预防、预警工作，并提升事故应急、恢复水平，对风险控制工作具有重要意义。本文借鉴仿生学方法，基于生物免疫原理，从以下四个方面开展了化工园区生产安全免疫机理与模型及免疫力评估系统及其应用研究： 1）化工园区生产安全事故发生演化机理和免疫机理剖析。借鉴仿生学方法，将化工园区类比生物体，分析了化工园区安全生产管理体系与生物免疫系统的相似性。基于化工园区生产安全抗体系统和抗原系统的相互作用，探讨了化工园区生产安全事故发生机理和演化过程。分别借鉴生物免疫系统的免疫耐受、免疫识别、免疫稳定、免疫应答、免疫反馈、免疫恢复等功能机理剖析了化工园区危险免疫耐受、隐患识别预警、事故应急、善后恢复四个方面的生产安全免疫机理。 2）化工园区生产安全免疫模型构建和免疫系统建立。以生产安全事故的潜伏、萌芽、暴露、恢复整个发生过程为主线，涵盖化工园区规划、建设、不成熟和成熟运作各个阶段，构建了包括免疫耐受子模型、预警子模型、应急子模型、事故恢复子模型四个子模型的化工园区生产安全免疫模型。从孕育先天建设所具有的天然耐受能力、培养后天管理所培育的获得耐受能力、提高抗原识别水平、强化抗体产生水平、提升非事故状态下的免疫稳定能力、增强事故状态下的免疫应答能力、完善基于免疫反馈的短期事故处理、升级基于免疫恢复的长期恢复重建八个方面建立了化工园区生产安全免疫系统。 3）化工园区生产安全免疫力评估指标体系构建和评估模型研究。应用“正反两面覆盖法”，从先天建设和后天管理两个方面构建了包括19个指标层指标的免疫耐受度评估指标体系，从抗原识别和抗体产生两个方面构建了包括28个指标层指标的基于免疫识别的预警水平评估指标体系，从非事故状态下的免疫稳定和事故状态下的免疫应答两个方面构建了包括22个指标层指标的基于免疫稳定和免疫应答的应急能力评估指标体系，从短期事故处理和长期恢复重建两个方面构建了包括25个指标层指标的基于免疫反馈和免疫恢复的事故恢复程度评估指标体系。通过专家问卷调查，应用改进的层次分析法（IAHP）获取各指标的权重，结合改进的多层次灰色评估法，研究了包括免疫耐受度评估子模型、预警水平评估子模型、应急能力评估子模型、事故恢复程度评估子模型四个子模型的化工园区生产安全免疫力评估模型。 4）化工园区生产安全免疫力评估系统软件编制及应用。用Microsoft Visual C#语言编制了包括四个评估子模型对应模块的化工园区生产安全免疫力评估系统软件，并应用于某省两个化工园区。应用结果表明：评估者可应用评估系统软件对化工园区的免疫耐受度、预警水平、应急能力、事故恢复程度的免疫力单方面进行评估，也可对化工园区的整体免疫力进行评估；评估结果与实际情况相符，，可识别化工园区自身的免疫脆弱项或缺陷，提供了优化免疫力水平的措施建议，达到了实现化工园区生产安全“自我”调节保障的预期目的。
[Abstract]:Chemical industry park has become the mainstream pattern of the development of petrochemical industry in the country, resulting in "gathering" benefits at the same time, bring about the high risk region, which may have great harm to the chemical accidents. Therefore, chemical park must conduct regular self diagnosis: hazard investigation and risk assessment, and risk control measures against in order to improve the production safety, chemical industry park "immunity". To strengthen the Chemical Park production safety accident prevention, early warning, and improve emergency and recovery level, plays an important role in risk control work. The reference method based on the principle of bionics, biological immune system, carried out the production of the chemical industry park security immune mechanism and model and evaluation system and its immunity the application of the research from the following four aspects:
1) Chemical Industrial Park production safety accidents evolution mechanism and immune mechanism analysis. Using bionics method, chemical park analogy organisms, analyze the similarity of Chemical Industry Park safety production management system and the immune system. The interaction of Chemical Industry Park production safety system and system based on antigen antibody, discusses the mechanism and evolution process of chemical Industry Park production safety accident. Draw on the immune tolerance, immune recognition, immune stability, immune response, immune feedback, immune function recovery mechanism analysis of the chemical industry park risk tolerance, risk identification and early warning, emergency response and rehabilitation safety immune mechanism in four aspects.
2) the establishment of Chemical Industry Park production safety and immune system. The immune model with latent, production safety accidents sprout, exposure, to restore the entire process as the main line, covering chemical industrial park planning, construction, operation of immature and mature stages, including the construction of immune tolerance model, early warning model, emergency sub model. Chemical Industry Park production safety immune model recovery sub model four sub models. The accident from pregnant natural tolerance with congenital construction, cultivate acquired management fostering gain tolerance ability, improve the level of antigen recognition, enhanced antibody level, enhance the immune ability of non stable under accident conditions, enhance the immune response ability under the condition of accidents the perfect short-term accident treatment based on immune feedback, upgrade the immune recovery of long-term recovery reconstruction in eight aspects of the establishment of a Chemical Industrial Park production safety based on the immune system.
3) construction of the index system and evaluation model of production safety assessment of chemical industry park. "Both sides covered immunity application method", from the two aspects of the construction and management of congenital acquired established including 19 indexes of immune tolerance index evaluation index system, which includes two aspects of the construction of the 28 indicators of the level of immune recognition the warning level based on the evaluation index system from the recognition of antigen and antibody, from the two aspects of the immune response of non accident under the condition of immune stability and accident condition is established including 22 indicators of level emergency response capability immune stability and immune response based on the evaluation index system, from the short-term and long-term treatment of accident reconstruction in two aspects the construction includes 25 indicators of the immune feedback and immune recovery accident recovery degree evaluation index system based on the expert questionnaire, the application of improved The analytic hierarchy process (IAHP) to get the weight of each index, combined with multi-level grey evaluation method is improved, including the research of immune tolerance evaluation sub model, model assessment and early warning level, the sub model of emergency capability assessment, accident recovery assessment of the degree of immunity of safe production of Chemical Industry Park sub model four sub models of the evaluation model.
4) production of the chemical industry park safety assessment software development and application of immunity system. Using Microsoft Visual C# to establish immunity of production safety in chemical industry park consists of four sub modules of the corresponding evaluation model and evaluation system software, and applied to a two industrial park. The application results show that the assessment can be immune tolerance, the application of the assessment software chemical industry park early warning level, emergency capability, accident recovery degree of immunity of unilateral evaluation, also the overall immunity to the chemical industry park for evaluation; the evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation, immune recognition of their vulnerability or chemical park defects, provides measures and suggestions to optimize the immunity level, to achieve the expected goal realization of Chemical Industry Park production safety self regulatory safeguards.

【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TQ086

【参考文献】