基于“综合赋权”复合模糊物元的重庆市综合灾害模糊风险评价

发布时间：2018-04-12 08:22

本文选题：灾害风险评价 + 模糊物元　；参考：《山地学报》2015年03期

【摘要】：综合灾害风险是当前灾害研究领域中的热点和核心议题之一。灾害风险评价是综合灾害风险研究的重要基础环节,厘定风险并摸清成因,可为综合灾害风险管理提供科学依据。在区域灾害系统分析的基础上,以重庆市38个区县作为基本评价单元,以公开资料和政府统计数据作为主要的数据来源,基于"R=f(h)×f(v)"的综合灾害风险概念模型,根据"科学性、系统性、独立性和可操作性"原则,构建了反映致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露性、灾损敏感性和防灾减灾能力四个方面的"重庆市综合灾害模糊风险评价指标体系";使用集成层次分析法(AHP)和熵权法(EVM)的"综合赋权法"为指标体系赋权;在上述基础上采用"复合模糊物元(FME)"模型对重庆市各区县综合灾害模糊风险构成要素及整体风险进行了定量研究,并对灾害风险成因进行了初步分析。研究得出结论:重庆市致灾因子危险性整体水平略微偏高,承灾体易损性整体水平较低,综合灾害模糊风险整体水平居中;渝中区、涪陵区和渝东北的城口县、开县、云阳县、奉节县各类灾害发生及造成损失的可能性较大,是未来防灾减灾工作的重点。
[Abstract]:Integrated disaster risk is one of the hot spots and the core topics of current research in the field of disaster. The disaster risk assessment is an important basic link of integrated disaster risk, determine the risk and find out the causes, can provide a scientific basis for integrated disaster risk management. Based on the analysis of regional disaster system, taking 38 counties of Chongqing city as the basic evaluation unit open to the public and government data, statistical data as the main data source, based on R=f (H) * f (V) "integrated disaster risk concept model, according to the" scientific, systematic, independent and operational principle, construction reflects the hazard risk, disaster bearing body exposure four, a loss of sensitivity and ability of disaster prevention and reduction of "Chongqing city comprehensive disaster risk evaluation index system; fuzzy analysis method" using integrated level (AHP) and entropy (EVM) of the "comprehensive weighting method" for weighting in the index system; Using the compound fuzzy matter-element based on (FME) model of each district and county of Chongqing city comprehensive disaster fuzzy factors of risk and the overall risk of quantitative research, and the disaster risk causes are analyzed. The study concluded: Chongqing city to the overall level of disaster risk factor slightly, the overall level of disaster bearing body vulnerability the lower the overall level of fuzzy comprehensive disaster risk center; Yuzhong District, Fuling district and northeast of Chongqing Kaixian, Chengkou County, Yunyang County, Fengjie County, the various types of disasters and losses caused by the possibility of a larger, is the focus of future disaster prevention and reduction work.

【作者单位】：华东师范大学河口海岸学国家重点实验室;西南大学地理科学学院;西南大学三峡库区生态环境教育部重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(项目编号:41372177)~~
【分类号】：X43

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