上海城市安全生产风险指数评价及治理研究

发布时间：2018-04-18 06:38

本文选题：安全生产 + 风险指数　；参考：《华东理工大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：考虑到工业化和城市化进程中城市安全生产系统面临的风险问题,面对已有研究对整体安全生产风险指数评价相对不足的现状,探索如何构建一套适合我国特别是上海特大城市的安全生产风险指数评价体系及模型,成为该领域风险管理的首要问题。本文考虑从城市整体安全生产系统的风险评价出发,采用指标体系构建、系统建模、实证分析的方法,综合应用安全管理、风险管理、数据包络法(DEA)等多学科理论和方法,进行基于DEA的城市安全生产风险指数评价及治理研究。首先,基于灾害风险指数、欧洲多重风险评估法和工业事故风险评估法的风险指数评价的基本构成,构建基于“致灾因子—脆弱性”两个构成的风险指数评价指标体系,分别从致灾因子和脆弱性两个维度展开进行指标选取。其次,运用DEA构建安全生产风险指数评价模型。分析事故产生机理,以脆弱性作为模型的输入指标,以致灾因子的事故后果危险性作为输出指标,以事故产生效率模拟风险指数,同时在模型应用中运用主成分分析法进行改善。最后,将上海18个区县安全生产系统的相关数据代入DEA模型进行计算,通过实证分析得到各区县的风险指数排序,进行风险分区,提出分级风险治理策略。通过与实际比较证明模型的有效性。本文所提出的研究方法具有数据来源易得、计算便捷和结果有效的优点,可以为城市安全生产风险管理提供借鉴和参考。
[Abstract]:Considering the risks faced by urban production safety systems in the process of industrialization and urbanization, and in the face of the relatively inadequate evaluation of overall safety production risk indices,Exploring how to construct a set of safety production risk index evaluation system and model suitable for our country especially Shanghai mega-city becomes the primary problem of risk management in this field.Based on the risk evaluation of the whole urban safety production system, this paper adopts the methods of index system construction, system modeling, empirical analysis, comprehensive application of safety management, risk management, data envelopment method, and so on.This paper studies the evaluation and governance of urban safety production risk index based on DEA.First of all, based on disaster risk index, European multi-risk assessment method and industrial accident risk assessment method, a risk index evaluation index system based on "disaster-causing factor-vulnerability" is constructed.The indexes were selected from the two dimensions of disaster factors and vulnerability.Secondly, DEA is used to build a safety production risk index evaluation model.The mechanism of accident generation is analyzed. The vulnerability is taken as the input index of the model, and the accident consequence risk of the disaster factor is taken as the output index, and the risk index is simulated by the accident generation efficiency.At the same time, principal component analysis was used to improve the model.Finally, the relevant data of the safety production system of 18 districts and counties in Shanghai are added to the DEA model for calculation. Through empirical analysis, the ranking of the risk index of each district and county is obtained, the risk zoning is carried out, and the classified risk management strategy is put forward.The validity of the model is proved by comparison with practice.The research method proposed in this paper has the advantages of easy data source, convenient calculation and effective results. It can provide reference and reference for urban safety production risk management.
【学位授予单位】：华东理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：X913.4

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