基于EW-SPA模型的海事码头安全评价

发布时间：2018-04-25 03:19

本文选题：安全工程 + 熵权　；参考：《安全与环境学报》2017年05期

【摘要】：鉴于海事码头系统的复杂性,利用单一的集对分析理论难以对其做出准确的风险评价,因此,将熵权和集对分析理论加以组合,基于熵权和集对分析的基本理论,建立EW-SPA模型的海事码头安全评价研究方法。首先,综合分析影响码头安全的影响因素,建立包括自然环境、港口环境、交通环境3类一级指标及14项二级指标的海事码头安全评价指标体系。其次,应用专家调查法赋权与信息熵的理论确定权重,从而保证了原始信息的完整性,减少信息的流失。再次,运用集对分析原理计算集对联系度,对海事码头的安全状况进行评价和预测,从而克服了传统码头安全评价方法在处理不确定性方面的不足。最后,运用EW-SPA模型和熵权云模型对道仁矶海事码头的安全评价与预测进行比对分析,结果表明,将EW-SPA模型应用于海事码头的安全评价和预测,计算简单,评价结果较可靠。
[Abstract]:In view of the complexity of maritime wharf system, it is difficult to make an accurate risk evaluation by using a single set pair analysis theory. Therefore, the entropy weight and set pair analysis theory are combined, based on the basic theory of entropy weight and set pair analysis. The research method of maritime terminal safety evaluation based on EW-SPA model. Firstly, the factors influencing the safety of the terminal are analyzed synthetically, and the evaluation index system of maritime terminal safety is established, which includes the natural environment, the port environment, the traffic environment and 14 second-class indexes. Secondly, the weight is determined by the theory of expert investigation and information entropy, which ensures the integrity of the original information and reduces the loss of information. Thirdly, using the set pair analysis principle to calculate the set pair connection degree, the safety condition of maritime terminal is evaluated and forecasted, which overcomes the shortcomings of the traditional method in dealing with uncertainty. Finally, the EW-SPA model and entropy weight cloud model are used to compare the safety evaluation and prediction of Daolinji maritime terminal. The results show that the application of EW-SPA model to the safety evaluation and prediction of maritime terminal is simple, and the evaluation results are reliable.
【作者单位】：武汉理工大学航运学院内河航运技术湖北省重点实验室;
【分类号】：U698.5

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