铁路安全风险预警信息系统及关键技术研究

发布时间：2018-04-25 06:51

本文选题：铁路安全风险 + 风险预警　；参考：《中国铁道科学研究院》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着近年来铁路网规模快速扩张、高速铁路集中投产、新技术新装备大量投入运用,铁路安全面临的风险不断加大,对强化铁路安全风险管理特别是安全生产过程控制提出了更高的要求。如何确保现实安全,实现铁路安全长治久安这一核心目标,实现安全工作由“治病”向“强身”的转变,更需要我们持续创新安全风险管理。安全风险评价预警技术是一种有效的安全趋势分析和安全风险管理的技术手段,而在深化铁路安全风险管理应用中,目前面临着安全风险分类不清,缺乏安全趋势预测、风险量化评价和预警技术等问题,因此,开展铁路安全风险预警评价技术应用研究是目前铁路安全风险管理的主要研究内容之一。本文基于2015年中国铁路总公司重大科研计划课题《安全监控信息综合应用研究》(合同编号:2015X009-A),通过对国内、外铁路安全风险预警管理技术发展现状的分析,基于我国铁路深化安全风险管控的实际应用需求,结合信息网络技术,以铁路安全风险量化评价预警和安全趋势分析、健全铁路安全风险预控管理体系为重点,提出了一种构建集铁路安全风险监测和预警、事故趋势分析、安全状态评等应用为一体的安全风险预警信息服务平台的新思路。同时为规范铁路安全风险因素数据库的建立,研究明确4大类铁路风险因素分类标准;为分析和掌握铁路安全的发展趋势,基于多元回归预测方法等研究提出了铁路交通事故趋势预测模型;为实现按单位(或专业)下一阶段的风险预警,研究定义了以“危害值”为核心的风险因素危害值量化计算方法,并结合预测算法和预警阈值,提出了基于“风险因素危害值”的定量预警评价模型;为客观地综合评价各铁路局(各专业)的安全状态等级,采用综合加权平均法,利用既有可得的铁路安全实际数据信息,结合铁路安全管理评价的要求,分别给出按铁路局和按专业的安全状态评价模型。
[Abstract]:With the rapid expansion of the railway network in recent years, the centralized production of high-speed railways and the large number of new technologies and new equipment, the risks facing railway safety are increasing. Higher requirements are put forward for strengthening railway safety risk management, especially for safety production process control. How to ensure the real safety, realize the core goal of railway safety long-term stability, and realize the change of safety work from "curing illness" to "strengthening body", need us to continuously innovate safety risk management. The early warning technology of safety risk assessment is an effective technical means of security trend analysis and security risk management. However, in deepening the application of railway safety risk management, the classification of safety risk is unclear and the prediction of safety trend is lacking. Therefore, it is one of the main research contents of railway safety risk management to carry out the research on the application of railway safety risk early warning evaluation technology. Based on the project "Comprehensive Application of Safety Monitoring Information" of China Railway Corporation in 2015 (contract No.: 2015X009-AXi), this paper analyzes the present situation of railway safety risk early warning management technology both at home and abroad. Based on the practical application demand of deepening safety risk control in railway of our country, combining with information network technology, focusing on the quantitative evaluation and early warning of railway safety risk and the analysis of safety trend, and perfecting the management system of railway safety risk pre-control, In this paper, a new idea of constructing an information platform for early warning of railway safety risk is put forward, which integrates the application of railway safety risk monitoring and early warning, accident trend analysis and safety state evaluation. At the same time, in order to standardize the establishment of the database of railway safety risk factors, the classification standards of four categories of railway risk factors are studied, and the development trend of railway safety is analyzed and grasped. Based on the research of multiple regression forecasting method, the forecast model of railway traffic accident trend is put forward, and in order to realize the risk early warning in the next stage by unit (or specialty), In this paper, the quantitative calculation method of risk factor hazard value is defined, and a quantitative early-warning evaluation model based on "risk factor hazard value" is put forward by combining forecasting algorithm and warning threshold. In order to objectively and synthetically evaluate the safety state grade of each railway bureau (each specialty), the comprehensive weighted average method is adopted, and the available railway safety actual data information is used in combination with the requirements of railway safety management evaluation. The evaluation models of safety state of railway bureau and specialty are given respectively.
【学位授予单位】：中国铁道科学研究院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U298

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