铁路危险货物运输风险性综合分析

发布时间：2018-04-27 12:25

本文选题：危险货物 + 风险性　；参考：《大连交通大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国化工、石油等行业快速发展,人们越来越重视这些危险品在运输过程中存在的风险性。在整个铁路危险货物运输的过程中,办理的大部分业务量主要集中在与铁路衔接的专用线或专用铁路上。危险货物运输风险高、安全要求严、管理难度大。目前,我国铁路危险货物办理站运输安全管理主要依靠经验式管理,这就要求铁路相关部门要制定出一套科学有效的综合分析办法,对运输过程风险性有个整体的控制。本文首先分析了影响铁路危险货物运输风险性的重要因素,通过研究学习系统工程等相关知识,建立了全面、具体、客观的评价指标体系；其次,阐述了模糊综合评价方法、层次分析法、灰色关联度的相关理论；在对原始获得的数据处理上,使定性与定量分离,通过改进的层次分析法计算出各指标的权重,对各种隶属函数的计算方法进行对比,最终选定更加合理、客观的圆形分布隶属函数方法,完善了现有计算方法的不足之处。由于层次分析法计算过程颇大,本文设计了excel表格法,简单易行的处理了计算繁琐的问题。本文以沈阳铁路局某办理危险货物运输的四等站及与其接轨的油专用线为例,全面分析了其在运输过程中可能存在的各种因素,并重点分析了整个运输过程中,作业人员是潜在的风险隐患,通过建立的数学模型计算出评价结果,利用风险等级模糊特征量法确定其风险等级,并运用灰色关联度方法对结果加以分析和应用。结果显示运用的数学模型符合运输生产客观实际情况。最后,本文提出了可以降低铁路危险货物运输风险性的合理化建议,为铁路危险货物运输风险性研究提供一定的借鉴作用。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's chemical and petroleum industries, people pay more and more attention to the risk of these dangerous goods in the course of transportation. In the course of the transportation of dangerous goods in the whole railway, most of the business volume is mainly concentrated on the dedicated line or special railway connected with the railway. The risks of transportation of dangerous goods are high, the safety requirements are strict, and the management is strict. It is very difficult. At present, the transportation safety management of the railway dangerous goods handling station in our country depends mainly on the experience management, which requires the railway related departments to formulate a set of scientific and effective comprehensive analysis methods, and have a whole control on the risk of the transportation process.
This paper first analyzes the important factors affecting the risk of railway dangerous goods transportation. Through the study of learning system engineering and other related knowledge, a comprehensive, specific and objective evaluation index system is set up. Secondly, the related theories of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, analytic hierarchy process and grey relational degree are expounded. On the other hand, the qualitative and quantitative separation is made, the weight of each index is calculated by the improved analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the calculation methods of various membership functions are compared. Finally, a more reasonable and objective circular distribution function method is selected to improve the shortcomings of the existing calculation methods. The excel table method is simple and easy to handle the tedious problem of computation.
This paper, taking the four station of dangerous goods transportation in Shenyang Railway Bureau and the oil special line which is in line with its rail, analyzes all kinds of factors that may exist in the course of transportation, and emphatically analyzes the potential risk hidden danger in the whole transportation process, and calculates the evaluation result through the established mathematical model and uses the wind. Risk grade fuzzy eigenvalue method is used to determine the risk grade, and the results are analyzed and applied by the grey relational degree method. The results show that the mathematical model is in line with the objective actual situation of transportation production. Finally, this paper puts forward the rationalization proposal to reduce the risk of railway dangerous goods transportation, and the risk of railway dangerous goods transportation. The study of sex provides a certain reference.

【学位授予单位】：大连交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U298;U294.83

【参考文献】