基于贝叶斯网络的内河搁浅船舶应急决策方法

发布时间：2018-05-01 20:30

本文选题：水路运输 + 搁浅船舶　；参考：《中国航海》2017年03期

【摘要】：为使内河搁浅船舶快速有效地进行应急处置,提出一种基于贝叶斯网络的应急处置决策方法,该方法具有直观性强、能定量分析各种应急方案和能处理不确定性信息等优点。通过对江苏海事局2009—2012年的搁浅船舶应急处置数据进行统计分析,获得搁浅船舶的应急处置方案和相对应的影响因素值。提出搁浅船舶的三层应急决策框架,即影响因素层、决策准则层和决策方案层。在该决策框架的基础上建立搁浅船舶应急处置模型,并介绍各决策层的因素及其含义;同时,利用条件概率表建立相互间的定量联系。以一艘在长江内运营的典型搁浅船舶为例进行案例验证,结果表明,提出的贝叶斯决策模型能很好地处理搁浅船舶的应急处置。
[Abstract]:In order to make the inland waterway stranded ship deal with the emergency quickly and effectively, a Bayesian network based emergency decision method is proposed. The method has the advantages of strong intuition, quantitative analysis of various emergency schemes and the ability to deal with uncertain information. Based on the statistical analysis of the emergency disposal data of stranded ships from 2009 to 2012 in Jiangsu Marine Administration, the emergency disposal scheme of stranded ships and the corresponding influencing factors are obtained. A three-layer emergency decision framework for stranded ships is proposed, which is the influence factor layer, the decision criterion layer and the decision scheme layer. On the basis of the decision frame, the emergency disposal model of stranded ship is established, and the factors of each decision layer and their meanings are introduced. At the same time, the quantitative relation between each other is established by using conditional probability table. Taking a typical stranded ship operating in the Yangtze River as an example, the results show that the Bayesian decision model can deal with the emergency disposal of stranded ship well.
【作者单位】：武汉理工大学航运学院;内河航运技术湖北省重点实验室;江苏渔港监督局;
【基金】：交通建设科技项目(20113282001630)
【分类号】：U698

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