长江江苏段船舶污染水域环境风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-05-02 11:01

本文选题：风险评价 + 指标体系　；参考：《大连海事大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：长江江苏段位于中国经济最发达地区之一的长三角江苏地区,航运经济发达。近年来,长江江苏段航行船舶数量及载运货物数量不断增加,一旦发生重大船舶污染事故,对流域生态环境和居民生活将带来严重影响。对船舶污染和应急管理进行研究,科学的评价区域内船舶污染风险,预测和分析风险水平,提出应急能力建设方案,从而有效预防船舶污染事件的发生,减少事故发生时产生的危害,具有重要的现实意义。本文从可能影响船舶污染的风险因素入手,通过对长江江苏段防治船舶污染水域工作现状进行分析,采用系统分析与层次分析相结合的方法,对各种风险因素进行研究,以船舶污染水域环境风险作为最高层次评价目标,根据此目标,选择影响决策的因素并确定评价指标,根据评价指标的从属关系,由高到低将中间层指标进行排列,构建了多层次的船舶污染水域环境风险评价指标体系；然后通过专家调查的方式,采取层次分析法确定各项风险因素的权重值;并根据风险因素相关指标的类型、特点,对指标进行标准化处理,征询专家意见给出指标评分函数,根据实例生成各指标评分,进而得到一个动态的、可比的风险综合评价值,从而对辖区安全监管工作进行预警和指导。
[Abstract]:Yangtze River Jiangsu is located in the Yangtze River Delta Jiangsu, one of the most developed areas in China, shipping economy is developed. In recent years, the number of navigation vessels and the quantity of cargo carried in Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River have been increasing continuously. Once serious ship pollution accidents occur, it will bring serious impact on the ecological environment of the river basin and the life of residents. Research on ship pollution and emergency management, scientific evaluation of marine pollution risk in the region, prediction and analysis of risk level, emergency capacity building scheme, so as to effectively prevent the occurrence of marine pollution incidents, It is of great practical significance to reduce the harm caused by the accident. This paper starts with the risk factors which may affect the ship pollution, through the analysis of the current situation of the prevention and control of ship pollution in Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River, and adopts the method of system analysis and AHP to study the various risk factors. The environmental risk of the polluted waters of ships is regarded as the highest evaluation objective. According to this objective, the factors influencing the decision-making are selected and the evaluation indexes are determined. According to the subordinate relationship of the evaluation indexes, the intermediate layer indexes are arranged from high to low. A multi-level evaluation index system of environmental risk in polluted waters of ships is constructed, and then the weight of each risk factor is determined by analytic hierarchy process through the way of expert investigation, and according to the types and characteristics of related indexes of risk factors, The index is standardized, the index scoring function is given in consultation with expert opinion, and the index score is generated according to the example, and then a dynamic and comparable comprehensive evaluation value of risk is obtained. In order to the area of safety supervision and early warning and guidance.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U698.7

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