基于系统动力学的地铁行车安全管理研究

发布时间：2018-05-03 18:41

本文选题：地铁行车 + 危险源辨识　；参考：《西南交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来各大主要城市都在大力促进城市轨道交通的建设发展,全国各地地铁线路普及度越来越高,线网也越来越发达。相比其他公共交通运输方式,地铁在准时性、安全性方面有着明显的优势,成为了大众市内或近郊出行的主要交通方式,大幅缓解了城市公共交通压力。各种安全隐患也伴随着激增的客流而到来,它威胁着乘客的安全和城市轨道交通系统的安全稳定。地铁行车安全管理是实现地铁安全运营的重要保障,利用改进的霍尔三维模型方法对地铁行车作业和风险进行分析并提炼相关危害因素,结合系统动力学的思想探究各种危害因素之间的相互影响关系,结合定性、化定量分析,将复杂的系统关系转化成简单的函数关系。并在此基础上;运用Vensim-PLE软件进行模型仿真验算,更科学的为地铁安全管理经济决策提供建议。论文的主要研究内容如下:1.对国内外地铁行车安全管理现状进行了分析总结,对地铁安全管理研究理论和方法中存在的不足进行了阐述。2.对地铁行车工作进行了简要介绍,进一步对行车作业进行总结和划分,建立了OCC调度工作、站务工作和乘务工作的行车作业分解树。3.通过霍尔三维模型方法来分析地铁行车人员子系统、设备子系统、环境子系统中隐藏的危害因素,并通过层次分析法结合AHP指标修正法来确定三大子系统的相互权重。4.利用系统动力学的思想对地铁行车系统进行因果分析并建立模型,结合仿真软件对其进行实例分析,并对地铁行车安全管理提供建议。本研究将系统动力学研究问题的思想引入地铁行车安全管理中,对实际工作的开展有着一定的意义,为地铁安全管理决策提供参考。
[Abstract]:In recent years, major cities are vigorously promoting the construction and development of urban rail transit. Compared with other public transportation modes, subway has obvious advantages in punctuality and safety. It has become the main mode of public transportation in or around the city, and has greatly alleviated the pressure of urban public transportation. All kinds of safety risks come along with the surge of passenger flow, which threaten the safety of passengers and the safety and stability of urban rail transit system. Subway traffic safety management is an important guarantee to realize subway safety operation. The improved Hall three-dimensional model method is used to analyze the subway operation and risk and refine the relevant hazard factors. Combined with the thought of system dynamics, this paper probes into the interaction between various harmful factors, combines qualitative and quantitative analysis, and transforms the complex system relationship into a simple functional relationship. On the basis of this, Vensim-PLE software is used to carry out model simulation and check calculation, which provides more scientific advice for the economic decision of subway safety management. The main contents of this thesis are as follows: 1. This paper analyzes and summarizes the present situation of subway traffic safety management at home and abroad, and expounds the deficiency in the research theory and method of subway safety management. This paper briefly introduces the subway driving work, further summarizes and classifies the driving operation, and establishes the decomposing tree .3of the OCC dispatching work, the station work and the crew work. The hidden harm factors in subway train personnel subsystem, equipment subsystem and environment subsystem are analyzed by Hall three-dimensional model method, and the mutual weights of three subsystems are determined by AHP combined with AHP index correction method. By using the idea of system dynamics, the cause and effect analysis of subway driving system is carried out and the model is established. The example is analyzed with simulation software, and some suggestions are provided for the management of subway driving safety. In this paper, the idea of system dynamics research is introduced into subway traffic safety management, which has a certain significance for the development of practical work, and provides a reference for subway safety management decision-making.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U298.1

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