自由飞行下基于布朗运动的随机微分方程碰撞风险研究

发布时间：2018-05-08 00:09

本文选题：空中交通管理 + 自由飞行　；参考：《中国民航大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：自由飞行是一种能够有效解决空中交通拥挤问题的飞行模式。在自由飞行下,飞行路线不再受固定航路(航线)的约束,飞行员自主选取最佳飞行路线并负责保持飞机之间的安全间隔。为了保障自由飞行下的飞行安全,需要对自由飞行下的碰撞风险进行评估研究。本文研究了自由飞行下基于布朗运动的随机微分方程碰撞风险评估,主要工作如下:1、对自由飞行的特点、碰撞风险及影响因素、安全目标水平和碰撞风险评估流程等进行了分析。2、考虑自由飞行下飞行员可以自由选择飞行路线,直线航线将增多,研究了自由飞行下基于直线航线的碰撞风险。根据两条直线航线在同一平面的位置关系,分别在相同航线、平行航线和交叉航线三种情况下运用基于布朗运动的随机微分方程方法建立了碰撞风险评估模型。3、考虑自由飞行下由CNS因素导致的飞机定位误差具有随机性,符合布朗运动特征,并且关注CNS因素误差分布的3维相关性,建立自由飞行下飞机运动的随机微分方程碰撞风险模型,并利用Milstein法与有限差分法结合的方法求解该模型。4、根据自由飞行下飞机碰撞事故的发生是飞机发生冲突事件、防撞系统告警失败事件和飞行员干预失败事件共同作用的结果,建立飞机发生碰撞的事件树模型。首先运用随机微分方程法分析CNS性能对冲突风险的影响,然后运用集对分析法分析防撞系统可靠性对碰撞风险的影响,最后运用贝叶斯网络分析飞行员可靠性对碰撞风险的影响。
[Abstract]:Free flight is a kind of flight mode which can effectively solve the problem of air traffic congestion. In the case of free flight, the flight path is no longer restricted by the fixed route (route). The pilot chooses the best flight path and is responsible for maintaining the safe interval between the aircraft. In order to ensure the safety of free flight, it is necessary to evaluate the collision risk in free flight. In this paper, the impact risk assessment of stochastic differential equations based on Brownian motion in free flight is studied. The main work is as follows: 1. The level of safety target and the process of collision risk assessment are analyzed. Considering that the pilot can choose the flight route freely under the free flight, the linear route will increase, and the collision risk based on the line route under the free flight is studied. According to the position relationship of two straight lines on the same plane, they are respectively on the same route. Based on the stochastic differential equation method based on Brownian motion, a collision risk assessment model .3is established in three cases of parallel route and cross route. The positioning error caused by CNS in free flight is stochastic. According to the characteristics of Brownian motion and paying attention to the 3D correlation of the error distribution of CNS factors, the collision risk model of stochastic differential equations for aircraft motion in free flight is established. The model. 4 is solved by combining Milstein method with finite difference method. According to the fact that the collision accident occurred in free flight is the result of the collision event of aircraft, the alarm failure event of anti-collision system and the pilot intervention failure event. The event tree model of aircraft collision is established. Firstly, the impact of CNS performance on conflict risk is analyzed by using stochastic differential equation method, and then the impact of reliability of collision prevention system on collision risk is analyzed by set pair analysis method. Finally, Bayesian network is used to analyze the impact of pilot reliability on collision risk.
【学位授予单位】：中国民航大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：V328

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