铁路公路震害损失预测模型研究

发布时间：2018-05-08 02:13

本文选题：铁路公路 + 震害　；参考：《西南交通大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：铁路、公路是生命线工程的重要组成部分,如果在地震灾害中遭受破坏,往往会造成巨大的经济损失,并且对抗震救灾工作将产生不可估量的影响。目前,已有许多学者研究了建筑物的震害损失评估方法,而对于铁路、公路系统震害损失的灾前预测及灾后快速评估研究较少。因此,铁路、公路的震害损失预测研究是具有显著社会及经济效益的重要工作。本文主要完成了以下工作：1.将铁路系统分为桥梁、路基、隧道、轨道及车站5个部分,对每部分的结构震害特征及其机理进行了归纳和分析。2.通过选取的7个影响桥梁震害的主要因素,构建了计算桥梁震害指数的方法；并采用数理统计中的多元线性回归分析法以及汶川地震27座桥梁的基础数据和震害调查资料,确定了震害影响因子的系数值；根据震害指数、破坏等级及破坏损失比建立了桥梁震害直接经济损失模型。以框架结构和砖混结构为主,采用何玉林提出的结构破坏比矩阵,提出了铁路车站房屋震害的直接经济损失预测方法。根据9条在汶川地震中震害比较严重而且调查资料比较详细的隧道资料,确定了隧道各个结构在不同烈度下的破坏比,并通过各个结构的破坏比、长度及相应的重建单价得到了隧道震害的直接经济损失模型。3.针对山区铁路、公路的特点,在传统的路基震害损失预测模型中提出应将’山地灾害风险考虑在内。利用国道G213线都江堰—映秀公路的震害调查资料和勘察设计图纸,运用MATLAB软件计算得出路基震害因子的量化值；利用各个工段的震害等级和震害指数值,归纳得到路基的震害指数值和破坏等级的关系,并结合规范确定的破坏比建立了路基震害直接经济损失模型。将其运用于水磨支线公路的震害损失预测中,说明了模型的合理性和实用性。4.提出采用列车通过能力的下降来计算铁路震害的间接经济损失。得到了铁路系统在遭遇地震后的线路通过能力示意图,并确定了计算线路通过能力损失值的公式。引入列车牵引定数将通过能力损失值转换为铁路运输周转量,并结合铁路每吨每公里的运输收入,即可计算出受灾线路的短期经济损失,从而建立了铁路震害的间接经济损失预测模型。
[Abstract]:Railway and highway is an important part of lifeline engineering. If it is damaged in earthquake disaster, it will cause huge economic losses, and will have an inestimable effect on earthquake relief work. At present, many scholars have studied the methods of earthquake damage assessment for buildings, but for railway and highway systems, the prediction of earthquake damage before and the rapid assessment after disaster are few. Therefore, the prediction of earthquake damage loss of railway and highway is an important work with remarkable social and economic benefits. This paper mainly completed the following work: 1. The railway system is divided into five parts: bridge, roadbed, tunnel, track and station. Through the selection of 7 main factors affecting bridge damage, the method of calculating bridge damage index is constructed, and the multivariate linear regression analysis method in mathematical statistics and the basic data and earthquake damage investigation data of 27 bridges in Wenchuan earthquake are adopted. Based on the earthquake damage index, damage grade and damage loss ratio, the direct economic loss model of bridge earthquake damage is established. Based on the frame structure and brick-concrete structure, the direct economic loss prediction method of railway station buildings is put forward by using the structural damage ratio matrix proposed by he Yulin. According to 9 tunnel data which are more serious in Wenchuan earthquake and more detailed in investigation data, the damage ratio of each tunnel structure under different intensity is determined, and through the damage ratio of each structure, The direct economic loss model of tunnel damage is obtained by the length and the corresponding unit price of reconstruction. In view of the characteristics of railway and highway in mountainous area, it is suggested that the risk of mountain disaster should be taken into account in the traditional prediction model of subgrade earthquake damage loss. By using the survey data of Dujiangyan and Yingxiu Highway of National Highway G213, the quantitative value of subgrade earthquake damage factor is calculated by using MATLAB software, and the earthquake damage grade and index value of each section are used. The relationship between earthquake damage index value and damage grade of roadbed is summarized, and the direct economic loss model of subgrade earthquake damage is established in combination with the damage ratio determined by the code. It is applied to the prediction of earthquake damage loss of Shuimo branch highway, and the rationality and practicability of the model are illustrated. The indirect economic loss of railway earthquake damage is calculated by using the decrease of train passing capacity. The schematic diagram of railway line passing capacity after the earthquake is obtained, and the formula for calculating the loss value of railway line passing capacity is determined. With the introduction of train traction numbers, the loss value of train capacity will be converted into the railway transport turnover, and combined with the transport income per ton per kilometre of the railway, the short-term economic losses of the affected lines can be calculated. Thus the indirect economic loss prediction model of railway earthquake damage is established.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P315.9;X951

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