铁路机务系统行车事故中机车乘务员的人因研究

发布时间：2018-05-12 05:02

本文选题：铁路机务系统 + 行车事故　；参考：《中国铁道科学研究院》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：在科学技术飞速发展的今天,机械设备向自动化和智能化不断改进。铁路系统也是如此,列车运行速度和行车密度不断提高,行车事故造成的危害也越来越大,更加突显出人在铁路机车驾驶的人机系统中的主导地位和决定作用。本文从铁路机务系统安全现状出发,探讨铁路机务系统行车事故中的人为失误机理。首先,文章以两件行车事故为出发点,归纳总结了近5年铁路机务系统行车事故,分析了当前安全管理现状,简述了人因可靠性分析的相关概念,整理出铁路机务系统行车事故中人为失误的影响因素;其次,参考现有的人为失误模型,结合铁路机务系统行车事故的具体情况,构建了适合铁路机务系统行车事故的人为失误模型;最后,对现有常见人因可靠性分析方法进行分析比较,将认知可靠性和差错分析方法(CREAM)引入铁路机务系统行车事故人为失误的分析中,通过构建失误模式、前因分类表以及后果-前因追溯表,对人为失误的根原因进行追溯分析,并阐述定量预测人为失误概率的方法。本文运用CREAM法,将怀柔北机务段2017年2月14日S232次耽误列车一般D10类事故作为案例,进行分析研究,分析结果与事故调查报告基本一致,验证了CREAM法在铁路机务系统行车事故人为失误分析中的可行性;同时,对该事故进行定量预测,计算出人为失误的概率,为相关管理部门对事故的提前预测以及后期防范提供一定的借鉴和指导。
[Abstract]:In the rapid development of science and technology today, machinery and equipment to automation and intelligence continue to improve. The same is true of railway system, with the increasing of train speed and driving density, and the increasing harm caused by traffic accidents, which highlights the dominant position and decisive role of human beings in the man-machine system of railway locomotive driving. Based on the present situation of railway locomotive system safety, this paper discusses the mechanism of human error in train accidents of railway locomotive system. First of all, based on two traffic accidents, this paper summarizes the train accidents of railway locomotive system in the last five years, analyzes the current situation of safety management, and briefly describes the related concepts of human reliability analysis. The influencing factors of human error in train accidents of railway locomotive system are sorted out. Secondly, referring to the existing human error model, combining with the specific situation of train accidents in railway locomotive system, The human error model suitable for train accidents in railway locomotive system is constructed. Finally, the common methods of human reliability analysis are analyzed and compared. The method of cognitive reliability and error analysis is introduced into the analysis of human error in train accidents of railway locomotive system. The root cause of human error is analyzed retrospectively by constructing fault mode, classification table of antecedent and retractive table of consequence and antecedent. The method of quantitatively predicting the probability of human error is expounded. In this paper, using the method of CREAM, the general D10 type accident of S232 delayed train on February 14, 2017 in Huairou North Locomotive Depot is taken as a case, and the analysis results are basically consistent with the accident investigation report. The feasibility of CREAM method in the analysis of human error in train accident of railway locomotive system is verified, and the probability of human error is calculated by quantitatively predicting the accident. To provide some reference and guidance for the relevant management department to predict the accident in advance and prevent the later period.
【学位授予单位】：中国铁道科学研究院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U298.51;U268.47

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