基于可靠性理论的事件树分析方法研究

发布时间：2018-05-13 23:19

本文选题：可靠性理论 + 事件树分析　；参考：《中国安全生产科学技术》2015年06期

【摘要】：事件树分析过程中事件树的编制和分析方法缺乏系统性,导致实际运用中事件树的编制缺乏可操作性。从目标系统的选择、环节事件逻辑关系的确定、定量分析中基本数据的来源和确定方法等三个问题进行了系统研究,并以可靠性的相关理论为基础,提出"从控制和影响初始事件发展演化的角度,调查分析对初始事件做出响应的安全功能,按系统工作原理对目标系统进行重构,构建目标系统的功能结构图,画出系统的可靠性框图"入手,对"传统的事件树绘制程序"进行修正,解决了事件树分析过程中目标系统的选择、环节事件逻辑关系的确定以及定量分析基本数据的确定方法等问题。修正后的方案对实现事件树的正确编制和系统分析逻辑更清晰,操作指导性更强。
[Abstract]:In the process of event tree analysis, the method of compiling and analyzing event tree is lack of systematization, which leads to the lack of maneuverability of event tree compilation in practice. Based on the theory of reliability, the selection of target system, the determination of logical relation of link events, the source of basic data and the method of determination in quantitative analysis are studied systematically. From the point of view of controlling and influencing the development and evolution of the initial event, this paper investigates and analyzes the security function of responding to the initial event, reconstructs the target system according to the working principle of the system, and constructs the function structure diagram of the target system. The reliability block diagram of the system is drawn, and the traditional event tree drawing program is revised to solve the choice of the target system in the process of event tree analysis. The logical relation of link events and the method of determining the basic data of quantitative analysis are also discussed. The modified scheme is more clear and more instructive for the correct compilation of event tree and system analysis.
【作者单位】：西南科技大学环境与资源学院;西南科技大学非煤矿山安全技术四川省高等学校重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51404200) 四川省教育厅科研项目(14ZA0089)
【分类号】：X928

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