民航空管单位安全承载能力与持续安全发展研究

发布时间：2018-05-17 05:33

本文选题：空管单位 + 安全承载能力　；参考：《中国地质大学(北京)》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：在飞机架次快速增长、航班正点率要求提高和空域无法增加的多重挤压下,民航空管单位的安全保障压力日益增加,这给民航业带来较大的安全风险。如何科学地确定民航空管单位的“安全承载能力”及其影响因素,掌握其与持续安全发展的动力学机制,对民航基于风险的科学决策具有重要的意义。本文分析了现行空域容量评估、资源(环境)承载力等对研究民航空域满足发展的现实最大化利用方面不适应,提出了民航空管单位安全承载能力的概念。在对民航空管单位的系统分析、文献综述和问卷调查的基础上,利用结构方程模型(SEM)对民航空管单位能力影响因素之间的作用关系、作用路径和关联因素进行了研究。在此基础上,研究了民航空管单位安全承载能力与持续安全发展的动力学机制,并进行了模拟仿真。得出的主要结论如下：(1)界定了民航空管单位安全承载能力的内涵。确定了民航空管单位安全承载能力的影响因素和作用机理,建立了安全承载能力、静态能力、发展潜(能)力及其各维度之间的关系模型,并利用结构方程模型进行了验证分析。(2)民航空管单位发展潜(能)力对静态能力有显著的正向影响作用。管制能力对静态能力影响系数最大,其次为通导能力、气象能力和情报能力；管制能力受其他三方面能力的制约,同时,通导能力对情报能力和气象能力有正向影响作用。发展潜(能)力各维度之间具有相互影响的作用关系,其中安全文化、组织学习和风险管理能力对发展潜(能)力的影响程度较大,其次为环境感知能力和资产技术能力。(3)确定了民航空管单位安全承载能力与安全目标、安全投入、安全和服务状况、航班保障架次、民航审批政策等因素之间的因果关系和反馈机制,构建了民航空管单位安全承载能力与持续安全发展系统动力学(SD)模型。(4)模拟仿真了不同政策审批政策下的航班保障架次、不安全事件率、航班延误率的变化趋势,以及安全目标、安全投入变化对民航空管单位安全承载能力及对管制、气象、情报、通导等能力的影响规律和趋势；针对两种情形分别给出了政策建议。(5)模拟仿真了高速发展、传统发展和协调发展三种模式分别对航班保障架次、安全承载能力、不安全事件率和航班延误率的变化规律及趋势。相对于其他两种模式,协调发展模式下,航班保障架次的增长率会随着时间逐步加大,不安全事件率始终保持在较低的水平,航班延误率基本保持平稳,是一种良性可持续发展模式。
[Abstract]:Under the rapid growth of the aircraft overhead, the demand for the flight point rate and the multiple extrusion of the airspace, the security pressure of the civil aviation air traffic control unit is increasing. This brings the greater safety risk to the civil aviation industry. How to scientifically determine the "safety bearing capacity" of the Civil Aviation air traffic management unit and its influencing factors and master it and the sustainable safety The dynamic mechanism of development is of great significance to the scientific decision-making based on the risk based scientific decision. This paper analyzes the current space capacity assessment, the resource (environment) carrying capacity and so on, which does not adapt to the practical maximum utilization of the civil aviation airspace, and puts forward the concept of the safety bearing capacity of the civil aviation air traffic management unit. On the basis of the systematic analysis, literature review and questionnaire survey, the structural equation model (SEM) is used to study the relationship between the influence factors of the capacity of civil aviation air traffic management units, the action path and the related factors. On this basis, the dynamic mechanism of the safety bearing capacity and sustainable development of civil aviation air traffic management units is studied. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the connotation of the safety bearing capacity of civil aviation air traffic control unit is defined. The influencing factors and mechanism of the safety bearing capacity of civil aviation air traffic control unit are determined, and the relationship model between the safety bearing capacity, static capacity, developing potential (energy) force and its dimensions is established, and the structural equation is used. The model has been verified and analyzed. (2) the development of the civil aviation air traffic control unit has a significant positive effect on the static capacity. The influence coefficient of the control capability to the static capacity is the greatest, the second is the ability of conducting, the meteorological ability and the intelligence ability; the control ability is restricted by the other three aspects, and the ability of communication and guidance to the intelligence and meteorology Ability has a positive impact on the development of latent (energy) forces with mutual influence, among which security culture, organizational learning and risk management ability have a greater impact on developing potential (energy), followed by environmental perception and asset technical ability. (3) the safety bearing capacity and safety items of civil aviation air traffic management units are determined. Standard, safety input, safety and service status, flight security framework, civil aviation approval policy and other factors, such as the causal relationship and feedback mechanism, constructed the civil aviation air traffic control unit safety carrying capacity and sustainable security development system dynamics (SD) model. (4) simulation and Simulation of the policy under the policy approval of flight security, unsafe event rate The change trend of flight delay rate, as well as the safety target, the change of safety input to the safety bearing capacity of the civil aviation air traffic control unit and the regulation and trend of the control, weather, information and navigation, and the policy suggestions for the two cases. (5) the simulation and simulation of the high-speed development, the traditional development and the coordinated development of three modes, respectively. The change rule and trend of flight security, safety bearing capacity, unsafe event rate and flight delay rate. Relative to the other two modes, the growth rate of flight support will gradually increase with time, the rate of unsafe event is kept at a lower level, and the flight delay rate is basically stable. A benign sustainable development model.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：V328;V355.1

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