航班延误下的机场安全风险管理

发布时间：2018-05-19 16:33

本文选题：航班延误 + 民航机场　；参考：《南京航空航天大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：“安全第一”是民航业一个至关重要的命题。民用机场承担着民航安全的重大责任。近年来，严重危及民航安全的航班延误现象已经成为我国民航日益突出的重要问题。本文分析了国内外机场安全风险管理研究现状，将航班延误作为重要风险源，，研究航班延误对机场安全风险的影响，建立了航班延误下的机场安全风险评估指标体系，对风险分析和安全评估手段方法进行了探究。首先，分析了当前我国民航运输业的航班延误现状及机场安全管理形势，综述了航班延误、航空安全、安全管理体系及安全风险分析与评估等问题的国内外研究现状。阐述了航班延误下机场安全风险管理的定义、流程及两类风险认知。运用事故致因理论，对航班延误与机场安全风险的因果关系进行了阐述。其次，运用MMEM理论，从人员子系统、设备设施子系统、环境子系统和安全管理子系统等四个角度入手，建立了航班延误下机场安全风险评估指标体系。第三，作为本文的主体部分，采用结合模糊理论的聚类分析方法，按安全风险指标的影响程度进行聚类，分析了航班延误下的机场安全风险。基于贝叶斯网络理论建立航班延误下机场安全风险评估的拓扑结构模型，通过采用集结专家意见的方法对每一节点进行推理更新，利用软件GeNIe建立了安全风险评估模型，并进行了反推诊断分析。民航安全涉及的系统是一种动态、多变量的开放性复杂系统，不确定因素多，逻辑关系复杂。在风险分析中，除了可以定值量化的指标外，还有很多无法用数量值确切表示的定性指标，如人员素质、管理水平等。鉴于模糊聚类和贝叶斯网络理论对于解决复杂系统不确定性和关联性引起的事件有很大优势，选用这两种方法对航班延误下的机场安全风险进行评估。
[Abstract]:Safety first is a crucial proposition in the civil aviation industry. Civil airports bear the heavy responsibility of civil aviation safety. In recent years, flight delay which seriously endangers the safety of civil aviation has become an increasingly prominent problem in China's civil aviation. This paper analyzes the present situation of airport security risk management at home and abroad, takes flight delay as an important risk source, studies the impact of flight delay on airport security risk, and establishes the airport security risk assessment index system under flight delay. The methods of risk analysis and safety assessment are explored. Firstly, this paper analyzes the current situation of flight delay and airport security management in China's civil aviation transportation industry, and summarizes the domestic and foreign research status of flight delay, aviation safety, safety management system and safety risk analysis and assessment. This paper expounds the definition, process and two kinds of risk cognition of airport security risk management under flight delay. The causality between flight delay and airport security risk is expounded by using accident cause theory. Secondly, using the theory of MMEM, from the personnel subsystem, equipment subsystem, environment subsystem and safety management subsystem, the index system of airport security risk assessment under flight delay is established. Thirdly, as the main part of this paper, the clustering analysis method combined with fuzzy theory is used to analyze the airport security risk under flight delay according to the influence degree of security risk index. The topology model of airport security risk assessment under flight delay is established based on Bayesian network theory. Each node is inferred and updated by the method of gathering expert opinions, and the security risk assessment model is established by software GeNIe. And the back-push diagnostic analysis was carried out. The system involved in civil aviation security is a dynamic, multivariable open complex system with many uncertain factors and complicated logic relations. In risk analysis, there are many qualitative indexes, such as personnel quality, management level and so on, which can not be expressed by quantitative value. In view of the advantage of fuzzy clustering and Bayesian network theory in solving the events caused by uncertainty and correlation of complex systems, these two methods are used to evaluate the airport security risk under flight delay.
【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：V328

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