铁路灾害风险评估与应急救援策略研究

发布时间：2018-05-27 09:29

本文选题：铁路应急体系 + 致灾因素　；参考：《北京交通大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：铁路应急管理工作的重中之重,在于加强事故发生前的预防和准备,风险评估与资源配置是安全预防与应急准备的重要工作。论文在深入分析铁路致灾因素的基础上,提出灾害风险评估方法,得出铁路线路事故发生概率与严重程度预测结果；以此为依据建立铁路救援资源优化配置模型,设计算法求解模型并进行实例应用。论文通过文献查阅、实地调研、专家调查、模拟仿真等方法,解决铁路线路风险评估及救援资源优化配置的分析、抽象、建模、求解、应用等问题。论文的主要研究工作如下： 1、深入分析风险评估及资源配置相关研究的国内外现状,根据铁路应急管理工作的特点,提出以铁路风险评估的结果为依据,科学合理地配置铁路救援资源的思路。结合中国铁路系统的实际情况,对铁路常见灾害的致灾因素危险性进行分析。 2、通过对铁路突发事件及灾害的发生、发展、演化机理的分析,研究事件传播特性、影响域,以及灾害演化与应急保障的进程关系。研究铁路应急救援的各个关键环节要素、救援流程,探索如何将风险评估、资源配置与救援策略相结合。 3、从人员因素、设备因素、环境因素和管理因素四个方面,对铁路致灾因素进行分析,引入改进梯形模糊数的层次分析法,建立铁路灾害风险评估体系。 4、深入分析铁路救援资源的类型,研究铁路救援资源类型、数量与事故严重程度的对应关系,为科学配置覆盖不同风险的救援资源储备点中的资源提供依据。以铁路事故风险评估的结果为依据,在预测事故点位置及事故严重程度的基础上,提出基于集合覆盖模型的铁路救援资源优化配置多目标模型,采用蚁群算法求解。 5、根据研究的铁路灾害风险评估方法和资源优化配置模型理论,结合某铁路局突发事件及灾害历史统计数据,对模型和算法进行实例应用,研发救援策略决策支持的关键技术,实现平台应用。
[Abstract]:The most important task of railway emergency management is to strengthen the prevention and preparation before accidents. Risk assessment and resource allocation are the important work of safety prevention and emergency preparedness. On the basis of deep analysis of railway disaster factors, the paper puts forward the method of disaster risk assessment, and obtains the prediction results of the probability and severity of railway line accidents, based on which the optimal allocation model of railway rescue resources is established. The algorithm is designed to solve the model and an example is applied. Through literature reference, field investigation, expert investigation, simulation and so on, the paper solves the problems of railway line risk assessment and optimal allocation of rescue resources, such as analysis, abstraction, modeling, solution, application and so on. The main research work of this thesis is as follows: 1. The present situation of risk assessment and resource allocation at home and abroad is analyzed in depth. According to the characteristics of railway emergency management, the train of thought of allocating railway rescue resources scientifically and reasonably based on the results of railway risk assessment is put forward. Combined with the actual situation of China's railway system, the hazards of common railway disasters are analyzed. 2. Through the analysis of the occurrence, development and evolution mechanism of railway emergencies and disasters, the characteristics of event propagation, the region of influence, and the relationship between disaster evolution and emergency protection are studied. The key elements of railway emergency rescue, rescue process and how to combine risk assessment, resource allocation and rescue strategy are studied. 3. From four aspects of personnel factor, equipment factor, environment factor and management factor, this paper analyzes the railway disaster factors, introduces the analytic hierarchy process to improve the trapezoid fuzzy number, and establishes the railway disaster risk assessment system. 4. The types of railway rescue resources are analyzed in depth, and the corresponding relationship between the types of railway rescue resources, the number and the severity of accidents is studied, which provides the basis for the scientific allocation of resources in the rescue resources reserve sites covering different risks. Based on the results of the risk assessment of railway accidents and the prediction of the location and severity of the accidents, a multi-objective model of railway rescue resources optimal allocation based on the set coverage model is proposed, which is solved by ant colony algorithm (ACA). 5. According to the research method of railway disaster risk assessment and the theory of resource optimal allocation model, combined with the historical statistical data of sudden events and disasters of a railway bureau, the model and algorithm are applied to examples, and the key technology of rescue strategy decision support is developed. Implement platform application.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U298

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