煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估与预警研究

发布时间：2018-06-01 01:42

本文选题：煤矿瓦斯爆炸 + 态势评估　；参考：《中南大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：摘要：长期以来,瓦斯灾害一直威胁着我国煤炭工业的健康发展,并造成了重大的财产损失和人员伤亡。瓦斯爆炸灾害是煤矿瓦斯灾害的最主要形式,具有破坏性强、经济损失大、人员伤亡多等显著特点,是煤矿安全生产中最严重的事故类型。论文针对煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害防控和预警体系中存在的薄弱环节,运用安全科学、系统科学、信息与计算科学以及矿山安全等相关理论,采用理论研究、现场调查、数值分析、计算机模拟和系统开发等相结合的方法,研究煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估和预警方法体系,实现瓦斯爆炸灾害预警信息化系统,对实现煤矿安全生产系统中的瓦斯爆炸灾害风险“早期识别”和事故的“事先预防”,提高煤矿本质安全化水平,促进煤炭工业的安全可持续发展等具有重要意义。 (1)系统分析了煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害机理与预控技术,提出了现有煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害预控管理理论与方法体系尚存在的问题；针对煤矿安全生产系统具有的非线性动力学特性和瓦斯爆炸灾害风险源的复杂性,将风险管理和事故致因理论引入到煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害预控中,提出了基于多源信息融合机制的煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估与预警模型,以解决现有瓦斯爆炸灾害预防所需的信息量少、信息及时性差等问题。 (2)针对煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害危险源的多样性与复杂性,以及它们之间存在相互影响、相互作用且带有反馈等特点,从“人-机-环境-管理”4个层面来系统分析瓦斯爆炸灾害系统的危险源,采用灰色关联分析法来计算危险源对瓦斯爆炸灾害影响程度的大小,根据灰色关联计算结果来构建煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估指标体系；运用网络分析法ANP来刻画评估指标之间非线性和非彼此独立的网络关系,并计算评估指标的权重分布。 (3)提出了煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估的GRA-ANP-FCE模型。该模型采用灰色关联分析方法计算影响因素的灰色关联度并进行排序,以获得煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害的主控因素,采用网络分析法建立了多准则、多层次的评估指标体系网络模型并计算各评估指标权重,结合评估指标的权重分布,采用多级模糊综合评判法对煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害的态势进行评估；针对煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害系统中存在大量确定性和不确定性影响因素,运用集对分析理论中的联系熵特性,提出了煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势的ANP-SPA评估模型,并应用该模型对煤矿进行瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估。 (4)根据煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估与预警框架,在风险分级体系和风险预测研究基础上,系统阐述了瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估与预警的程序与内容和风险预警等级与预警阀值设置；分析了GRNN神经网络预测基本原理,并提出了对GRNN神经网络的光滑因子进行优化算法,建立了基于改进的GRNN的瓦斯浓度预警模型并进行了模型性能检验和效果评估,预测结果可靠,对瓦斯浓度预测超限预警达到了很好的效果；分析了概率神经网络(PNN)和信息融合中决策层融合的基本原理,建立了瓦斯爆炸灾害的决策层融合PNN预警模型,通过实例验证,PNN预警模型在瓦斯爆炸灾害预警中的预警能力强、效率高。 (5)在系统分析煤矿安全生产中其它业务管理信息系统的体系和数据结构基础上,设计煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估与预警系统的结构及其数据流程,构建了煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估与预警系统的体系结构,并建立基于多源信息融合的灾害预警共享数据中心。为提高信息系统的可扩展性、可靠性、健壮性和鲁棒性,采用多语言多平台的设计理念来开发煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估与预警信息系统,包括Matlab、PowerBuilder和Visual C++等。论文针对煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害风险预控中存在的薄弱环节,在国家自然科学基金资助项目(51274100)等资助下,运用多学科交叉理论进行了瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估与预警系统的构建与应用研究,有较高的学术研究价值和推广应用前景。(图83幅,表28个,参考文献195篇)
[Abstract]:Abstract: for a long time, gas disasters have been threatening the healthy development of China's coal industry and causing significant property losses and casualties. The gas explosion disaster is the most important form of coal mine gas disaster, which is characterized by strong destructive, great economic loss and many casualties. It is the most serious accident in coal mine safety production. In view of the weak links in the prevention and control and early warning system of coal mine gas explosion disaster, the paper uses the theory research, field investigation, numerical analysis, computer simulation and system development to study coal mine gas explosion, using the relevant theories of safety science, system science, information and calculation science and mine safety, and other related theories in the system of prevention and control and early warning of coal mine gas explosion disaster. The system of disaster situation assessment and early warning method to realize the early warning information system of gas explosion disaster is of great significance to realizing the "early identification" of the risk of gas explosion disaster in the coal mine safety production system and the "pre prevention" of the accident, improving the level of the essential safety of the coal mine and promoting the safe and sustainable development of the coal industry.
(1) systematic analysis of the coal mine gas explosion disaster mechanism and pre control technology, proposed the existing coal mine gas explosion hazard control management theory and method system still exist problems. In view of the nonlinear dynamic characteristics of coal mine safety production system and the complexity of the gas explosion hazard risk source, the risk management and accident causation theory are put forward. It is introduced to the precontrol of coal mine gas explosion disaster, and the situation assessment and early warning model of coal mine gas explosion disaster based on multi source information fusion mechanism is put forward, in order to solve the problem of less information and information timeliness needed for the prevention of existing gas explosion disasters.
(2) in view of the diversity and complexity of the dangerous sources of gas explosion hazards in coal mines, and their mutual influence, interaction and feedback, the hazard sources of gas explosion disaster system are systematically analyzed from the 4 aspects of "human machine environment management", and the grey color correlation analysis method is used to calculate the gas explosion disaster. The impact degree of the coal mine gas explosion disaster situation evaluation index system is constructed according to the grey correlation calculation results. The network analysis method ANP is used to describe the nonlinear and non independent network relationship between the evaluation indexes, and the weight distribution of the evaluation indexes is calculated.
(3) the GRA-ANP-FCE model of the coal mine gas explosion disaster situation assessment is put forward. The grey correlation analysis method is used to calculate the grey correlation degree of the influence factors and sort, so as to obtain the main control factors of the coal mine gas explosion disaster. According to the weight distribution of each evaluation index, combined with the weight distribution of evaluation index, the situation of coal mine gas explosion disaster is evaluated by multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. In view of the large number of determinacy and uncertainty factors in the coal mine gas explosion disaster system, the coal mine gas is put forward by using the characteristic of the contact entropy in the set pair analysis theory. The ANP-SPA evaluation model of explosion disaster situation is applied, and the model is applied to evaluate the situation of gas explosion disaster in coal mines.
(4) according to the framework of coal mine gas explosion disaster situation assessment and early warning, on the basis of risk classification system and risk prediction research, the procedures and contents of gas explosion disaster situation assessment and early warning, risk warning level and early warning threshold setting are systematically expounded, and the basic principle of GRNN neural network prediction is analyzed, and the GRNN nerve is put forward. The smooth factor of the network is optimized, and the improved GRNN based gas concentration early warning model is established and the model performance test and effect evaluation are carried out. The results are reliable and the gas concentration prediction is very effective. The basic original of the probability neural network (PNN) and the decision layer fusion in information fusion is analyzed. In addition, the decision layer of gas explosion disaster is set up to fuse the PNN early warning model. Through the example, it is proved that the PNN early warning model has strong early warning ability and high efficiency in the early warning of gas explosion disaster.
(5) on the basis of systematic analysis of the system and data structure of other business management information systems in coal mine safety production, the structure and data flow of the coal mine gas explosion disaster situation assessment and early warning system are designed and the system structure of the coal mine gas explosion disaster situation assessment and early warning system is constructed, and based on the multi source information fusion, the coal mine gas explosion disaster is built. In order to improve the scalability, reliability, robustness and robustness of the information system, the multi language and multi platform design concept is used to develop the coal mine gas explosion disaster situation assessment and early warning information system, including Matlab, PowerBuilder and Visual C + +.
In view of the weak links in the risk precontrol of coal mine gas explosion hazard, under the support of the National Natural Science Fund Project (51274100), the construction and application of the gas explosion disaster situation assessment and early warning system are carried out with the multidisciplinary cross theory, which has high academic value and application prospect. (Figure 83 Amplitude, 28 tables, 195 references.
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TD712

【参考文献】