基于信息关联输入的铁路应急预案群体评估模型构建体系研究

发布时间：2018-06-03 08:16

本文选题：铁路应急管理 + 铁路应急预案　；参考：《西南交通大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：铁路作为我国经济的大动脉和国家重要的基础设施,在国家综合交通运输体系中占据骨干和中枢地位。近年来,我国铁路朝着客运高速化、货运重载化、管理信息化、运营市场化的方向发展,为我国经济社会的发展提供重要的支撑与保障。但随着列车运行速度的不断提高、运力的持续增加、高新科技装备与技术的大量投入与使用、体制机制改革的不断深化,铁路突发事件的多样性、复杂性、后果严重性、时间紧迫性和社会公众性等特点日益凸显,给铁路的应急日常管理和应急救援指挥带来很多挑战,铁路运输的安全形势日益严峻。因此铁路急需建立完善的应急管理体系,保障快速、安全处置铁路各类突发事件,在最短的时间内恢复正常的运输秩序,力争减少人员伤亡和财产损失。同时,突出应急预案体系问题也较为突出：多数应急预案框架性和原则性过强,针对性和可操作性不足；制定预案时多依据统一的框架指南,较少针对具体的风险场景；缺少公开的宣传教育和动态的专业评估；缺少以发现问题为目的的演练等。铁路应急预案评估作为应急预案体系的重要一环,是对铁路应急预案质量高低的整体评估。通过对事先关键因素的识别和分析以及可靠的调查数据,采用科学合理的方法对评价目标进行合理分级与优选的系统化过程,有利于提高预案质量,保证迅速、有序、有效地开展应急与救援行动,降低突发事件对铁路系统各环节所带来的损失。因此,对于铁路应急预案评估问题的研究具有重要的理论与现实意义。本文将结合我国铁路应急管理体系中所面临的各类不同的实际情境,在既有研究的基础上,尝试构建更为完善的铁路应急管理体系、铁路应急预案体系。特别地,全文针对铁路应急预案的优选决策问题,构建应对不同情境的铁路突发事件的铁路应急预案决策模型以考核应急预案的优劣。本文的主要研究工作包括以下几个方面：1.既有文献的回顾分析。在总结大量相关文献的基础上,从三方面对我国应急管理发展历程、应急管理体系研究、应急预案体系予以介绍与回顾。具体包含以下几方面：我国应急管理的发展历程、我国铁路应急管理发展历程、我国应急管理体系研究现状、我国铁路应急管理体系研究现状、我国应急预案体系研究现状、我国铁路应急预案体系研究现状。2.建立铁路应急管理与应急预案体系。阐述了铁路突发事件诱因以及分级分类情况,界定铁路应急管理内涵。通过分析铁路应急管理存在的问题,提出新的铁路应急管理体系框架结构。针对铁路应急管理与应急预案管理特点,界定铁路应急预案体系概念,并在应急管理体系框架结构的基础上,从铁路应急预案顶层设计、风险分析与应急能力评估、铁路应急预案系统、铁路应急预案管理规章制度与铁路应急预案管理信息系统等方面构建铁路应急预案子体系。梳理了各部分内容关系,重构了不同种类预案的层级结构。此外,探讨了铁路应急预案评估的基本概念,提出铁路应急预案评估指标体系,分析了铁路应急预案评估的多主体、模糊性、关联性以及风险性等特点,指出铁路应急预案评估问题往往表现为基于信息关联输入与风险偏好相融合的模糊多属性群决策问题。3.构建群体专家偏好关联的铁路应急预案评估模型。首先,根据进一步完善的直觉梯形模糊数运算法则,提出基于模糊测度和Choquet积分的直觉梯形模糊数的信息集成算子,证明该集成算子的相关性质。其次,并依据前景理论定义直觉梯形模糊前景效应与前景价值函数,构造前景ITFNCI算子。而后,针对铁路系统内各部门多方参与且专家偏好信息关联的铁路应急预案评估问题,利用前景ITFNCI算子集结群体直觉梯形前景价值函数,进而采用MULTIMOORA理论进行预案比选,基于优势理论可获得铁路应急预案的综合排序以确定最优预案。4.考虑专家与属性均关联的铁路应急预案评估模型构建研究。首先,构建直觉梯形模糊决策矩阵序列,予以标准化处理,并将其转化为极小期望决策序列；其次,综合利用基于熵权法和考虑专家偏好关联的基于2-可加模糊测度与Choquet积分联合的主客观赋权法确定专家权重及属性权重；再次,分别引入WITFB平均算子及ITFN的Hamming距离以改进传统MULTIMOORA群体决策方法,基于优势理论可对铁路应急预案展开综合排序以确定最优预案。5.基于前景信息关联输入的铁路应急预案评估模型研究。首先,基于进一步完善的IITFN运算规则,讨论其局部封闭性。由此定义IITFN几何Bonferroni平均算子,并验证该算子的相关性质。在以IITFN表征评估信息的铁路应急预案评估框架内,引入前景理论解释专家心理行为特征,针对专家及属性之间均存在关联作用且权重均未知的铁路应急预案评估模型构建问题,提出基于前景混合区间直觉梯形几何Bonferroni平均算子的信息关联输入的铁路应急预案评估模型。该模型首先通过依次定义IITFN的前景效应、前景价值函数和前景价值,获取前景价值矩阵；其次,将前景价值矩阵转化为前景记分函数矩阵,并综合运用基于灰关联深度系数的客观属性权重极大熵模型和基于2-可加模糊测度与Choquet积分联合的专家权重确定模型,获取专家及属性权重信息；再次,利用PHIITFGB算子集结各专家的铁路应急预案评估信息,结合专家权重即可获取相应于各预案的综合前景价值；最后,计算综合前景记分价值函数,基于IITFN的序关系判别准则确定最优铁路应急预案。
[Abstract]:Railway, as the major artery of our country's economy and the important infrastructure of our country, occupies the backbone and central position in the national comprehensive transportation system. In recent years, China's railway has developed in the direction of high-speed passenger transportation, heavy freight transportation, management information and operation market, which provides important support and guarantee for the development of our country's economy and society. However, with the continuous improvement of the train running speed, the continuous increase of the transportation capacity, the large input and use of the high-tech equipment and technology, the continuous deepening of the reform of the system mechanism, the diversity, complexity, the seriousness of the consequences, the urgency of the time and the social public are becoming more and more prominent. The emergency assistance command brings many challenges and the security situation of railway transportation is increasingly serious. Therefore, the railway needs to establish a perfect emergency management system to ensure the rapid and safe disposal of all kinds of railway emergencies, restore normal transportation order in the shortest time, and strive to reduce casualties and property losses. Meanwhile, the emergency plan system is highlighted. The problem is also more prominent: most of the contingency plans are too framework and principled and lack of pertinence and operability; a unified framework guide is used in the formulation of plans, less specific risk scenarios, lack of public education and dynamic professional assessment, lack of training for the purpose of finding problems, etc. As an important part of the emergency plan system, it is the overall evaluation of the quality of the railway emergency plan. Through the identification and analysis of the key factors and the reliable investigation data, a scientific and reasonable method is used to classify and optimize the evaluation targets reasonably, which is helpful to improve the quality of the plan and ensure the rapid development of the plan. In order to carry out the emergency and rescue operations in an orderly and effective way, reduce the loss caused by the emergency of the railway system. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the evaluation of railway emergency plan. On the basis of this, we try to build a more perfect railway emergency management system and railway emergency plan system. In particular, the full text aims at the optimization decision of railway emergency plan, and constructs a railway emergency plan decision model for railway emergency response in different situations in order to assess the advantages and disadvantages of emergency plan. The main research work of this paper includes the main work of this paper. The following aspects: 1. the review and analysis of the literature. On the basis of a large number of relevant documents, the development process of emergency management, the research of emergency management system and the emergency plan system are introduced and reviewed from three aspects. The following aspects are included: the development course of China's emergency management and the development course of China's railway emergency management. The research status of emergency management system in China, the current situation of railway emergency management system research in China, the present situation of China's emergency plan system research, the current situation of China's railway emergency plan system research status.2. set up the railway emergency management and emergency plan system. The causes of railway emergency events and classification and classification of railway emergency management are expounded, and the connotation of railway emergency management is defined. By analyzing the existing problems of railway emergency management, a new framework of railway emergency management system is put forward. According to the characteristics of emergency management and emergency plan management of railway, the concept of railway emergency plan system is defined. On the basis of the framework of emergency management system, it is designed from the top level of railway emergency plan, risk analysis and emergency ability evaluation. The railway emergency plan system, the railway emergency plan management rules and regulations and the railway emergency plan management information system are constructed. The relationship between the various parts of the railway emergency plan is constructed and the hierarchy structure of different types of plans is restructured. In addition, the basic concept of railway emergency plan evaluation is discussed, and the railway emergency preplan is proposed. The evaluation index system of the case is used to analyze the multi-agent, fuzziness, relevance and risk characteristics of the railway emergency plan evaluation. It is pointed out that the railway emergency plan evaluation is often manifested by the fuzzy multi attribute group decision problem based on the fusion of information related input and risk preference.3. to build a railway emergency plan for the association of group experts. First, according to the further perfect intuitionistic trapezoid fuzzy number operation rule, the information integration operator based on the intuitionistic trapezoid fuzzy number based on fuzzy measure and Choquet integral is proposed, and the related properties of the integrated operator are proved. Secondly, the foreground and foreground value function is defined according to the prospect theory, and the prospect is constructed. ITFNCI operator. Then, aiming at the railway emergency plan evaluation problem of various departments involved in the railway system and the information association of experts' preference information, the prospect value function of the group intuitionistic trapezoidal foreground is aggregated by the foreground ITFNCI operator, and then the preplan is selected by the MULTIMOORA theory. Based on the potential theory, the comprehensive ranking of the railway emergency plan can be obtained. In order to determine the optimal plan.4., the railway emergency plan evaluation model which is related to both experts and attributes is considered. First, an intuitionistic trapezoid fuzzy decision matrix sequence is constructed, which is standardized and transformed into a minimum expected decision sequence. Secondly, the 2- additive model based on entropy weight method and the Association of expert preference is synthetically utilized. The subjective and objective weighting method combined with Choquet integral is used to determine the weight and attribute weight of the expert. Thirdly, the WITFB average operator and the Hamming distance of ITFN are introduced to improve the traditional MULTIMOORA group decision-making method. Based on the advantage theory, the railway emergency plan can be integrated to determine the optimal plan.5. based on the foreground information association. First, based on the further improved IITFN operation rules, the local closure of the railway emergency preparedness is discussed. Thus, the IITFN geometry Bonferroni mean operator is defined and the related properties of the operator are verified. The prospect theory is introduced to explain the expert's heart in the framework of the evaluation information of the railway emergency pre case with the IITFN evaluation information. In order to construct a railway emergency plan evaluation model based on the Bonferroni mean operator of the intuitionistic trapezoid geometry of the foreground mixed interval, a model of railway contingency prediction evaluation model based on the relationship between the experts and the attributes and the unknown weight is proposed. The model first defines the front of the IITFN in turn. The view effect, foreground value function and foreground value are obtained. Secondly, the foreground value matrix is transformed into a foreground score function matrix, and the model based on the weight entropy model of objective attribute weight based on the grey correlation depth coefficient and the expert weight based on the combination of 2- additive fuzzy measure and Choquet integral is obtained. Home and attribute weight information; thirdly, using the PHIITFGB operator to gather the evaluation information of the railway emergency plan for each expert, and combine the expert weight to obtain the comprehensive foreground value of each plan. Finally, the value function of the comprehensive prospect is calculated, and the optimal railway emergency plan is determined based on the order relation criterion of IITFN.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：U298

【参考文献】