高速公路系统安全可靠度度量及改善方法研究

发布时间：2018-06-05 14:31

本文选题：高速公路系统 + 安全可靠度　；参考：《哈尔滨工业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,由于国家政策的出台与大力改善,我国的交通安全状况有了明显的提升,然而,与国外发达国家相比,总体交通安全形势依然严峻。高速公路系统作为国家交通网络的重要组成部分,其安全性与大众的生命与财产安全息息相关,因此进行高速公路系统安全性分析与研究是极其必要的。本文根据系统可靠性理论,研究了高速公路系统的安全可靠度问题。以辽宁省高速公路为例,确定了基于清除变量的单向事故发生间隔时间统计分布形式,构建了基于事故发生间隔时间的高速公路系统安全可靠度度量模型,提出了基于全部路段和基于关键路段的2种方法用以提升高速公路系统的安全性。首先,分析了高速公路基本路段、主线收费站、互通式立体交叉及高速公路系统的事故发生间隔时间统计分布情况。采用MATLAB统计分析软件拟合了事故发生间隔时间的最优分布形式;最终通过皮尔逊卡方检验确定了高速公路系统及其子单元基于清除变量的单向事故发生间隔时间统计分布形式,即服从对数正态分布。其次,在可靠性理论适用高速公路安全分析的基础上,定义了高速公路系统的安全可靠度;确定了高速公路系统及其子单元的安全可靠度量化指标与函数形式;根据标定的安全运行函数,对基于交通量和路段长度的清除变量概念进行了明确;最终构建了高速公路系统及其子单元的安全可靠度度量模型。然后,提出了基于全部路段和基于关键路段的2种方法用以改善高速公路系统的安全可靠度。确定了高速公路系统及其子单元的安全可靠度改善步骤,具体包括初始安全可靠度计算、分配权重系数确定、目标安全可靠度设定及关键路段识别;在此基础上,给出了安全可靠度改善效果分析指标,并提出了基于成本增量的经济效益分析方法。最后,探讨分析了沈山高速公路的安全可靠度应用情况。分别采用2种方法对沈山高速公路系统及其子单元的安全可靠度进行了改善,提出了具体的安全可靠度改善措施,并对二者的安全可靠度改善效果及成本效益进行了对比分析。分析结果表明,基于关键路段的可靠度提升率明显高于基于全部路段的可靠度提升率,但基于全部路段的安全可靠度改善方法更为经济且值得推广。
[Abstract]:In recent years, due to the introduction and improvement of national policies, the traffic safety situation in China has obviously improved. However, compared with the developed countries, the overall traffic safety situation is still grim. As an important part of national transportation network, the safety of expressway system is closely related to the safety of public life and property, so it is extremely necessary to analyze and study the safety of expressway system. Based on the theory of system reliability, the problem of safety reliability of expressway system is studied in this paper. Taking Liaoning Provincial Expressway as an example, the statistical distribution form of one-way accident interval time based on clearing variables is determined, and the safety reliability measurement model of expressway system based on accident interval time is constructed. Two methods based on all sections and key sections are proposed to improve the safety of expressway system. Firstly, the statistical distribution of the basic section of expressway, the main toll station, the interchange and the interval time between accidents are analyzed. The optimal distribution form of accident interval time is fitted by using MATLAB statistical analysis software, and the statistical distribution form of one-way accident interval time of expressway system and its sub-units based on clearing variables is determined by Pearson chi-square test. That is, from the logarithmic normal distribution. Secondly, on the basis of applying reliability theory to highway safety analysis, the safety reliability of expressway system is defined, and the quantitative index and function of safety reliability of expressway system and its sub-units are determined. According to the calibrated safe operation function, the concept of clear variables based on traffic volume and section length is clarified. Finally, the safety reliability measurement model of expressway system and its sub-units is constructed. Then, two methods based on all sections and key sections are proposed to improve the safety reliability of expressway system. The steps of improving the safety reliability of the expressway system and its sub-units are determined, including the calculation of the initial safety reliability, the determination of the distribution weight coefficient, the setting of the target safety reliability and the identification of the key sections. The analysis index of safety reliability improvement effect is given, and the economic benefit analysis method based on cost increment is put forward. Finally, the application of safety and reliability of Shenshan Expressway is discussed and analyzed. Two methods were used to improve the safety reliability of Shen-Shan expressway system and its sub-units, and the concrete measures to improve the safety reliability were put forward, and the effectiveness and cost benefit of the two methods were compared and analyzed. The results show that the improvement rate of reliability based on key sections is obviously higher than that based on all sections, but the method of improving safety reliability based on all sections is more economical and worth popularizing.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U492.8

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