铁路危险货物动力锂电池运输安全评价方法研究

发布时间：2018-06-12 11:16

本文选题：铁路运输 + 危险货物　；参考：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着新能源汽车发展,锂电池作为新能源汽车的主要动力来源,其产量与运输需求逐年增加。根据国际法规,新能源汽车的动力锂电池属于危险货物,有其自身的危险性,一直是国际和国内关注的重点。但目前铁路尚未开展动力锂电池运输业务,且动力锂电池铁路运输安全条件尚不明确。因此开展动力锂电池铁路运输安全评价研究显得尤为重要。本文主要研究内容如下:(1)安全评价相关理论方法的归纳与总结。本文经过研究比较多篇文献的理论方法,确定引入耗散结构理论、熵理论开展动力锂电池铁路运输安全评价研究。然后对评价方法所涉及的耗散结构理论和熵理论进行了论述,并分析了锂电池铁路运输系统的耗散结构与耗散机理。(2)锂电池运输安全评价指标体系的构建。首先,结合锂电池构造、锂电池理化性质及热灾害机理等来分析锂电池铁路运输危险性。其次,针对锂电池的危险性,查阅锂电池运输相关法规,进而提出了锂电池铁路运输技术设施设备安全要求、载运工具与包装安全要求、铁路运输组织条件以及人员培训和运输安全管理要求。再次,利用灰色关联分析法分析国内外铁路危险货物运输事故,以确定锂电池铁路运输的安全影响因素。最后,根据上述分析结果,从“人-机-环-管-物”5个方面构建锂电池铁路运输安全评价指标体系。(3)文章以“安全熵”作为锂电池铁路运输系统稳定性和有序性的量度,确立锂电池铁路运输安全评价模型。首先,基于信息熵构建锂电池铁路运输安全熵计算模型,利用模糊数学求取指标危险隶属度,以及利用熵权层次分析法确定指标权重。其次,综合指标危险隶属度和权重计算锂电池铁路运输系统安全熵。再次,构建锂电池铁路运输事故树模型,将其映射为贝叶斯网络,利用Buckley法标定根节点先验概率,以及利用Netica软件更新根节点后验概率。最后,根据根节点后验概率计算锂电池铁路运输发生火灾事故的熵值,以对系统安全状态进行界定。(4)实例分析与结论。文章选择目前具有代表性的铁路危险货物集装箱办理站,结合实际的锂电池企业提供的资料,模拟锂电池铁路运输过程,对其运输状态进行评价。评价结果显示,该系统处于较为安全的状态,可以保证锂电池安全运输。
[Abstract]:With the development of new energy vehicle, lithium battery as the main power source of new energy vehicle, its output and transportation demand increase year by year. According to international laws and regulations, the power lithium battery of new energy vehicle belongs to dangerous goods and has its own danger, which has always been the focus of international and domestic attention. But at present, the railway has not carried out the power lithium battery transportation service, and the safety condition of the power lithium battery railway transportation is not clear. Therefore, it is very important to study the safety evaluation of power lithium battery railway transportation. The main contents of this paper are as follows: 1) the induction and summary of relevant theories and methods of safety evaluation. In this paper, the dissipative structure theory and entropy theory are introduced to evaluate the transportation safety of power lithium battery railway. Then, the dissipative structure theory and entropy theory involved in the evaluation method are discussed, and the dissipative structure and dissipation mechanism of Li-battery railway transportation system are analyzed. Firstly, the structure of lithium battery, physical and chemical properties of lithium battery and thermal hazard mechanism are combined to analyze the risk of lithium battery railway transportation. Secondly, in view of the danger of lithium battery, the relevant regulations of lithium battery transportation are consulted, and the safety requirements of equipment, transportation tools and packaging of lithium battery railway transportation technology are put forward. Railway transport organization conditions and personnel training and transport safety management requirements. Thirdly, the grey correlation analysis method is used to analyze the domestic and foreign railway dangerous goods transportation accidents in order to determine the safety factors of Li-Battery railway transportation. Finally, according to the above analysis results, the safety evaluation index system of lithium battery railway transportation is constructed from the five aspects of "man, machine, ring, tube and material". The article uses "safety entropy" as the measure of stability and order of lithium battery railway transportation system. The safety evaluation model of lithium battery railway transportation is established. Firstly, based on the information entropy, the calculation model of lithium battery railway transportation safety entropy is constructed, and the index risk membership degree is obtained by using fuzzy mathematics, and the index weight is determined by entropy weight analytic hierarchy process. Secondly, the safety entropy of lithium battery railway transportation system is calculated. Thirdly, the fault tree model of lithium battery railway transportation is constructed, which is mapped to Bayesian network. The prior probability of root node is calibrated by Buckley method, and the posteriori probability of root node is updated by Netica software. Finally, the entropy value of Li-Battery railway transportation fire accident is calculated according to the posterior probability of the root node, so as to define the safety state of the system. In this paper, the representative railway dangerous goods container handling station is selected, combined with the information provided by the actual lithium battery enterprise, the railway transportation process of lithium battery is simulated and its transportation status is evaluated. The evaluation results show that the system is in a relatively safe state and can ensure the safe transportation of lithium batteries.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U298.3

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