基于模糊理论的高速铁路安全风险评价及相关应用设计

发布时间：2018-06-16 00:42

本文选题：高速铁路 + 风险　；参考：《西南交通大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来高速铁路在我国大力发展,为人们的出行带来了便捷、促进了国民经济的发展。但与此同时由于高速铁路建成时间短、新技术、新装备多、系统复杂性增大、相关管理经验不足、配套管理培训体系还不完善等特点,其面临的安全风险问题比较多。为了最大限度的消除风险、保障铁路运输的安全,铁路部门开始大力推行安全风险管理,强调风险意识,建立安全风险管理体系。风险评价是风险安全管理的重要环节,有什么样的风险认识就有什么样的风险防控水平。本文通过模糊综合评价方法,针对高速铁路系统安全建立多重评价指标,进行安全风险评价,找到系统薄弱环节,得出安全管理的建议。首先,运用事故树分析法和事件树分析法对铁路常见事故进行了逻辑分析和原因整理。结合相关理论,辨识了造成铁路事故的三类危险源。其次,结合危险源情况采用系统安全理论,分析罗列出对高速铁路安全造成影响的人的不安全行为因素、设备的不安全状态、环境和管理的不安全因素。在此基础上采用层次分析法计算指标权重,建立安全风险评价指标体系。然后,根据获得的京沪高铁风险源数据,整理出风险因素,结合京沪高铁安全背景资料和事故资料,采用专家打分法确定评价指标隶属度。最后进行模糊计算,获得安全评价值,得出安全薄弱环节及相关建议。最后,根据安全评价的建议,建立京沪高速铁路风险源数据管理信息系统,采用信息化手段管理风险源数据,并将信息系统整理的数据作为安全风险管理和安全风险评价的参考数据。
[Abstract]:In recent years, high-speed railway has been developing vigorously in our country, which brings convenience to people and promotes the development of national economy. But at the same time, due to the characteristics of short construction time, new technology, new equipment, increasing system complexity, lack of relevant management experience and imperfect supporting management training system, the high-speed railway is faced with many safety risk problems. In order to eliminate risks and ensure the safety of railway transportation, railway departments began to carry out safety risk management, emphasizing risk awareness and establishing safety risk management system. Risk assessment is an important part of risk safety management. Based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, this paper establishes multiple evaluation indexes for the safety of high-speed railway system, evaluates the safety risk, finds the weak links of the system, and draws the suggestion of safety management. Firstly, the logical analysis and cause analysis of common railway accidents are carried out by means of accident tree analysis and event tree analysis. Combined with relevant theories, three kinds of dangerous sources of railway accidents are identified. Secondly, the unsafe behavior factors of people, the unsafe state of equipment, and the unsafe factors of environment and management are analyzed and listed according to the system safety theory. On the basis of this, AHP is used to calculate the index weight, and the index system of safety risk evaluation is established. Then, according to the risk source data of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway, the risk factors are sorted out, combined with the safety background data and accident data of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway, the expert scoring method is used to determine the degree of membership of the evaluation index. Finally, the fuzzy calculation is carried out, the safety evaluation value is obtained, and the safety weak link and related suggestions are obtained. Finally, according to the suggestion of safety evaluation, the risk source data management information system of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway is established, and the risk source data is managed by means of information technology. The data collected by the information system is used as the reference data for security risk management and security risk assessment.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U298

【参考文献】