飞机火灾事故分类模型的构建及应用

发布时间：2018-06-18 19:11

本文选题：飞机火灾事故 + 分类模型　；参考：《中国民用航空飞行学院》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：飞机火灾事故作为一种危害性极大的事故,一直是近年来国内外学者研究的重要课题。要研究飞机火灾事故,首先必须对这种事故有一个宏观的认识,因此,提出一个专门针对飞机火灾事故特点的分类模型迫在眉睫。本文从研究国内外现有的航空事故分类法和理论模型出发,通过对比找出它们之间的差异和不足,再结合飞机火灾事故的特点和研究者关注的重点,提出了一种更有利于揭示飞机火灾事故规律的分类模型——AFA2016分类模型。首先运用此模型发现现有事故调查报告中某些关键信息的缺陷,希望在今后关于飞机火灾的记录中能够细化这方面内容的记录。然后运用该模型对1990年至2015年间的飞机火灾事故进行统计分析。分析结果表明,航空器自身起火的事故和由事故撞击引起的起火事故发生频率相当,飞机火灾事故大多属于液体火灾,最容易发生火灾的部位是发动机和油箱,事故撞击引起的航空器起火/冒烟造成的后果最为严重,而且多数是由人为因素造成的。本文还利用灰色关联分析法分析导致飞机火灾事故的几类因素与伤亡人数之间的潜在联系。分析结果表明,人为失误是最有可能造成人员死亡的因素,天气状况不良最有可能造成人员受伤。最后搭建飞机火灾事故源数据库,并给出了飞机火灾事故案例库系统的设计方案。
[Abstract]:Aircraft fire accident, as one of the most harmful accidents, has been an important subject studied by scholars at home and abroad in recent years. In order to study the aircraft fire accident, it is necessary to have a macroscopic understanding of the accident at first. Therefore, it is urgent to put forward a classification model for the characteristics of the aircraft fire accident. Based on the study of the existing classification methods and theoretical models of aviation accidents at home and abroad, this paper finds out the differences and deficiencies between them by comparison, and then combines the characteristics of aircraft fire accidents and the focus of attention of researchers. An AFA2016 classification model, which is more helpful to reveal the law of aircraft fire accident, is proposed. Firstly, this model is used to find out the defects of some key information in the existing accident investigation report, and it is hoped that the record of this aspect can be refined in the future record of aircraft fire. Then the model is used to analyze the aircraft fire accidents from 1990 to 2015. The results show that the frequency of the aircraft fire accident is the same as that caused by the accident impact. The aircraft fire accident mostly belongs to the liquid fire, and the most prone to fire is the engine and the fuel tank. Aircraft fires / fumes caused by an accident are the most serious and are mostly caused by human factors. The grey correlation analysis is also used to analyze the potential relationship between several kinds of factors leading to aircraft fire accidents and the number of casualties. The results show that human error is the most likely cause of death and bad weather is the most likely cause of injury. Finally, the database of aircraft fire accident source is built, and the design scheme of aircraft fire accident case database system is given.
【学位授予单位】：中国民用航空飞行学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：V328.2

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