辽宁海洋灾害风险分级及评价方法研究

发布时间：2018-06-24 15:57

本文选题：致灾因子危险性 + 承灾体脆弱性　；参考：《大连海事大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着辽宁沿海经济带开发活动的急剧加强,人类活动与自然海岸生态系统的相互作用而引发的灾害越来越严重。数年来发生的海洋灾害类型复杂多样,分布广泛的海岸侵蚀、海水入侵、海面上升、滨海湿地退化和港湾淤积等对人民的生命财产已构成全面持久威胁,开展防灾减灾战略研究已成为海洋学术界的关注热点。因此,提出灾害风险评价方法及对策,制定管理办法,填充此研究领域空白,是我们亟须加以重视和解决的问题。由于海洋资源与环境具有极大的依赖性,随着辽宁沿海的高度深层快速开发,其生态格局和要素发生改变,带来明显的负面效应。除不可抗拒的自然变化外,人类不合理开发活动的叠加,使得海洋灾害问题越来越突出。为此,开展海洋灾害的防治对策研究,保障海洋生态环境安全及经济可持续发展具有重大意义。目前海洋灾害风险方面的研究尚不充分,本文在现有自然灾害风险评估理论体系以及辽宁省海洋生态属性基础上,对构建新的海洋灾害评价模型、划分风险评价等级及进行风险管理,做了以下几个方面初步研究： 1.系统研究了海洋灾害的特征,分析总结了历史灾害规律,构建了辽宁海洋灾害风险评价理论体系,确定辽宁海洋灾害主要有6种类型,分别为风暴潮灾害、海冰灾害、海岸侵蚀灾害、海水入侵灾害、赤潮灾害和海洋溢油灾害。 2.基于海洋灾害危险度和承灾体脆弱度构建了海洋灾害风险评价指标体系,运用层次分析法以及熵权法等计算指标权重,研究建立了“单一海洋灾害”和“复合海洋灾害”风险等级划分及评价方法,为海洋行政主管部门提供了技术保障。 3.系统分析了辽宁主要海洋灾害成灾过程、孕灾环境资料及承灾体指标,综合历史灾害发生情况、孕灾环境及承灾体概况,对辽宁沿海六市进行了海洋灾害风险分级及评价,绘制了风险评价结果图,并提出了风险管理建议。辽宁管理海区特色海洋灾害风险程度等级为：丹东市为低风险等级,大连市为极高风险等级,营口市、盘锦市、锦州市和葫芦岛市均为中度风险等级,为各海区管理和制定法规提供了理论基础和依据。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of Liaoning coastal economic belt, the disasters caused by the interaction between human activities and natural coastal ecosystem are becoming more and more serious. The various types of marine disasters that have occurred in the past few years, the widespread coastal erosion, the invasion of sea water, the rise of the sea surface, the degradation of coastal wetlands and the deposition of estuaries have posed an overall and lasting threat to the lives and property of people, The research of disaster prevention and mitigation strategy has become the focus of attention in marine academia. Therefore, it is urgent for us to put forward the methods and countermeasures of disaster risk assessment, formulate management methods and fill in the blank of this research field. Due to the great dependence of marine resources and environment, with the rapid and deep development of coastal areas in Liaoning Province, its ecological pattern and elements have changed, which has brought about obvious negative effects. In addition to irresistible natural changes, the superposition of human unreasonable development activities makes the problem of marine disasters more and more prominent. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the countermeasures of marine disaster prevention and control, to ensure the safety of marine ecological environment and the sustainable development of economy. At present, the research on marine disaster risk is not enough. Based on the existing natural disaster risk assessment theory system and the marine ecological attribute of Liaoning Province, this paper constructs a new marine disaster evaluation model. The classification of risk evaluation and risk management, do the following preliminary research: 1. This paper systematically studies the characteristics of marine disasters, analyzes and summarizes the laws of historical disasters, and constructs a theoretical system of marine disaster risk assessment in Liaoning Province. It is determined that there are six main types of marine disasters in Liaoning Province, namely storm surge disaster and sea ice disaster. Coastal erosion disaster, seawater invasion disaster, red tide disaster and marine oil spill disaster. 2. Based on the risk degree of marine disaster and vulnerability of disaster bearing body, the evaluation index system of marine disaster risk is constructed, and the weight of index is calculated by using AHP and entropy weight method. The risk classification and evaluation method of "single marine disaster" and "complex marine disaster" are studied and established, which provides technical guarantee for the competent department of marine administration. In this paper, the main marine disasters in Liaoning Province are systematically analyzed, including the disaster forming process, the disaster environment data and disaster bearing body index, the general situation of historical disaster occurrence, disaster environment and disaster bearing body, and the classification and evaluation of marine disaster risk in six coastal cities of Liaoning Province. The result chart of risk evaluation is drawn, and the suggestion of risk management is put forward. The risk levels of special marine disasters in Liaoning management sea area are as follows: Dandong City is low risk grade, Dalian City is extremely high risk grade, Yingkou City, Panjin City, Jinzhou City and Huludao City are all medium risk grades. It provides a theoretical basis and basis for the management and formulation of laws and regulations in each sea area.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：X43

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