基于决策需求的非常规突发事件应急方案生成方法

发布时间：2018-06-27 09:00

  本文选题：非常规突发事件 + 应急决策　； 参考：《消防科学与技术》2016年02期

【摘要】：在"情景-应对"决策模式下,依据案例推理技术的应急决策模型,通过对非常规突发事件现场决策需求分析,确定了应急决策的内容并对决策内容的表示、决策效能评价和决策方案修正进行了研究,最终实现了针对目标情景的应急方案生成。以大连"7·16"爆炸火灾事故为例对基于决策需求的非常规突发事件应急方案生成方法进行实证分析,实例研究表明:该方法生成的应急方案针对性强,可满足现场不同层级决策要求,为不同决策主体提供准确的、有针对性的应急方案。
[Abstract]:Under the decision-making mode of "situation-response", the emergency decision model based on case-based reasoning technology is used to determine the content of emergency decision and the representation of the decision content through the analysis of the demand for the field decision-making of unconventional emergencies. The evaluation of decision effectiveness and the modification of decision scheme are studied, and the emergency scheme generation for the target scenario is realized. Taking "716" explosion and fire accident in Dalian as an example, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the method of generating emergency plan of unconventional emergencies based on decision demand. The case study shows that the emergency scheme generated by this method has strong pertinence. It can meet the requirements of different levels of decision-making and provide accurate and targeted emergency plan for different decision makers.
【作者单位】： 中国人民武装警察部队学院;庆阳市消防支队;
【基金】：武警部队学院博士科研创新计划项目(BSKY201520)
【分类号】：X928
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本文编号：2073384