宁波市船舶海难事故综合风险评估

发布时间：2018-07-03 02:30

本文选题：海难事故 + 事故类型　；参考：《宁波大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：宁波市是我国规模较大的港口城市，其辖区的海域交通安全管理水平随港口的发展也在不断提高，但是船舶海难事故仍时有发生，造成经济损失和人员伤亡，影响宁波海洋经济和城市的发展。因此，如何对宁波市船舶海难事故综合风险进行分析，提高宁波市海上交通安全十分重要。为能尽可能科学合理的对宁波市船舶海难事故的综合风险进行评估，本文将主要以宁波市北仑区水域的船舶海难事故为对象，研究风险评估的方法及其应用。首先，以2003—2010年的船舶海难事故数据统计为基础，依据相关法规和相关理论研究分析得出宁波市船舶海难事故概况，并据此对宁波北仑区发生船舶海难事故的水域划分为五个港口区域和五个航道区域。其次，借鉴事故致因理论，从气象条件、人为因素、船舶因素、航道条件和港口因素五个方面研究船舶海难事故发生的风险源。再次，通过问卷调查和应用层次分析法，结合相关研究资料，确定船舶海难事故综合风险的评判指标及各指标的权重。在此基础上，借鉴工程设计参数的二级模糊综合评判方法，提出宁波市北仑区船舶海难事故综合风险评判模型。最后，在分析问卷调查的基础上，比对评判指标的重要性排序，应用所建立的评判模型首先计算得出了整个宁波北仑区的船舶海难事故的综合风险状况，然后以宁波市北仑区为具体分析对象，将北仑区划分成甬江口水域、北仑港海域、大榭港海域、穿山港海域和梅山港海域五个区域和航线a～e五个航道区域，对这些区域的船舶海难事故的状况进行具体的评价和分析，并绘制了北仑区各区域船舶海难事故综合风险等级分布图，，得到相关的结论和分析。本文探讨了事故致因理论、层次分析法、工程设计参数的二级模糊综合评判方法在宁波市船舶海难事故综合风险评估的分析中的应用，提出了宁波市船舶海难事故发生的主要危险源及其重要度。运用模糊综合评价方法主要对宁波市北仑区船舶海难事故综合风险进行评价，并绘制风险等级图，从而提出一些建议，减少或避免船舶海难事故的发生，从而促进宁波的持续快速健康发展。
[Abstract]:Ningbo is a large port city in China. The level of traffic safety management in its area is also improving with the development of the port. However, shipwrecks still occur from time to time, resulting in economic losses and casualties. Impact Ningbo marine economy and the development of the city. Therefore, it is very important to analyze the comprehensive risk of shipwreck in Ningbo and improve the safety of sea traffic in Ningbo. In order to evaluate the comprehensive risk of shipwreck in Ningbo as scientifically and reasonably as possible, this paper will mainly take the shipwreck in the waters of Beilun District of Ningbo as the object, and study the method of risk assessment and its application. First of all, based on the statistics of shipwreck data from 2003 to 2010, according to the relevant laws and regulations and relevant theoretical research and analysis, the general situation of shipwreck accident in Ningbo City is obtained. According to this, the waters of the shipwreck in Beilun District of Ningbo are divided into five port areas and five waterway areas. Secondly, using the theory of accident cause for reference, this paper studies the risk source of shipwreck from five aspects: weather condition, human factor, ship factor, channel condition and port factor. Thirdly, through the questionnaire survey and the application of AHP, combined with the relevant research data, the evaluation index and the weight of each index of the comprehensive risk of shipwreck accident are determined. On this basis, a comprehensive risk evaluation model of shipwrecks in Beilun District of Ningbo City is put forward by referring to the two-stage fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of engineering design parameters. Finally, on the basis of analyzing the questionnaire, comparing the importance of the evaluation index, the comprehensive risk situation of the shipwrecked accident in Beilun district of Ningbo is calculated by using the evaluation model established in this paper. Then taking the Beilun district of Ningbo as the concrete analysis object, the Beilun district is divided into five regions and five channel areas, namely, Yongjiang estuary, Beilun port, Daxie port, Qianshan port and Meishan port The status of shipwrecks in these areas is evaluated and analyzed, and the comprehensive risk level distribution map of shipwrecks in Beilun area is drawn, and the relevant conclusions and analysis are obtained. This paper discusses the application of the theory of accident cause, the analytic hierarchy process and the two-stage fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of engineering design parameters in the comprehensive risk assessment of shipwreck accidents in Ningbo. The main hazard sources and their importance of shipwrecks in Ningbo are put forward. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is mainly used to evaluate the comprehensive risk of shipwrecks in Beilun District of Ningbo City, and draw the risk grade map, and then put forward some suggestions to reduce or avoid the occurrence of shipwreck accidents. So as to promote Ningbo's sustained, rapid and healthy development.
【学位授予单位】：宁波大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U698;U676.8

【参考文献】