铁路易燃易爆品运输事故泄漏风险精细度量模型研究

发布时间：2018-07-04 12:12

本文选题：铁路运输 + 易燃易爆品　；参考：《铁道运输与经济》2017年07期

【摘要】：为准确度量铁路易燃易爆品运输事故的人员危害和财产损失,在传统双指标?(事故泄漏率和事故泄漏后果)?风险度量模型的基础上,结合易燃易爆品事故多为火灾爆炸事故的特点,建立适用于铁路易燃易爆品运输的风险精细度量模型。其中,事故泄漏率综合考虑包装破损率及易燃易爆品泄漏率,并采用统计学方法计算得出事故发生率,采用?logistic?回归分析法得出易燃易爆品包装破损概率;事故泄漏后果综合考虑人员伤亡和财产损失,并将人员伤亡和财产损失进行统一量纲化,同时,采用不同模型确定出人员伤亡影响区域和财产损失影响区域,进而量化出事故泄漏后果。该风险度量模型为易燃易爆品运输风险管理提供了理论基础,为选择易燃易爆品运输路径提供参考。
[Abstract]:In order to measure the accuracy of railway flammable and explosive transport accidents of human hazards and property losses in the traditional double index? (accident leakage rate and consequences of accident leakage)? Based on the risk measurement model and combined with the characteristics that flammable and explosive accidents are mostly fire and explosion accidents, a fine risk measurement model suitable for railway transportation of flammable and explosive products is established. The accident leakage rate considered package breakage rate and flammable explosive leakage rate, and the accident rate was calculated by statistical method. The results of regression analysis show that the packing breakage probability of flammable and explosive products, the consequences of accident leakage take into account casualties and property losses, and the casualties and property losses are unified and dimensioned, at the same time, Different models are used to determine the affected areas of casualties and property losses, and then the leakage consequences of accidents are quantified. The risk measurement model provides a theoretical basis for the transportation risk management of flammable and explosive products, and provides a reference for choosing the route of transportation of flammable and explosive products.
【作者单位】：西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院;
【基金】：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0802209)
【分类号】：U298.5

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