自然灾害概率风险的系统误差及校正研究

发布时间：2018-07-08 18:26

  本文选题：自然灾害 + 概率风险　； 参考：《系统工程理论与实践》2017年02期

【摘要】：传统的概率风险通过基于历史灾害事件记录分别求解风险源强度的概率分布曲线和风险承受体的脆弱性曲线而得到,表示的是研究区域如果发生一次灾害事件的期望损失值,缺乏表征风险的"空间、时间、水平值"三要素中的时间要素指标,因而会存在系统误差.因此,本文通过对传统的概率风险模型添加时间要素,给出了系统误差校正后的概率风险评估模型.之后,以浙江省和广东省的台风概率风险比较研究为例,通过确定具体的指标和采用信息扩散技术估计相应的函数,将校正后的概率风险评估模型具体化为台风概率风险的应用模型,评估了两省的台风概率风险.结果表明,系统误差校正前后,两省的台风概率风险比较截然不同,校正后的概率风险结果更符合客观实际.
[Abstract]:The traditional probabilistic risk is obtained by solving the probability distribution curve of the intensity of the risk source and the vulnerability curve of the risk tolerance based on the historical disaster event record, which represents the expected loss value if a disaster event occurs in the studied area. There is no time factor index in space, time and level to represent risk, so there will be systematic error. Therefore, by adding time elements to the traditional probabilistic risk model, this paper presents the probabilistic risk assessment model after system error correction. Then, taking the comparative study of typhoon probability risk between Zhejiang Province and Guangdong Province as an example, by determining specific indicators and using information diffusion technology to estimate the corresponding functions, The corrected probabilistic risk assessment model is translated into the applied model of typhoon probabilistic risk, and the typhoon probabilistic risk of two provinces is evaluated. The results show that the typhoon probability risk is quite different between the two provinces before and after the system error correction, and the corrected probability risk results are more in line with the objective reality.
【作者单位】： 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室;北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室;北京师范大学民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院;中国农业科学院农业信息研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(41471426)~~
【分类号】：X43
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本文编号：2108314