基于SFT理论的系统可靠性评估方法改造研究

发布时间：2018-07-27 14:18

【摘要】：为了确定基本事件发生概率随工作条件变化而变化的一类系统可靠性,利用空间故障树修改T-S模糊故障树和贝叶斯网络系统可靠性评估方法,解决了原有方法的系统状态计算结果的存在性问题;系统状态的模糊化问题;基本事件发生概率确定问题。并列举了这类系统的一个实例,即电气系统T,其中的元件故障发生概率与其使用时间t和工作温度c有关。提出了解决上述问题的修改后方法,并计算系统T的故障发生概率分布。就本例研究表明:系统三种状态(0,0.5,1)的概率最值位置接近;P(T=1)的有效范围P(T=0.5)的有效范围P(T=0)的有效范围;P(T=0)的最大值P(T=0.5)的最大值,与实际的系统可靠性特点相同。另一方面,T=0过渡到T=0.5时系统对使用时间t敏感;T=0.5过渡到T=1对使用温度c敏感。
[Abstract]:In order to determine the reliability of a class of systems where the probability of occurrence of basic events varies with working conditions, T-S fuzzy fault tree and Bayesian network system reliability evaluation method are modified by space fault tree. The problems of the existence of the results of the system state calculation, the fuzzification of the system state and the determination of the probability of the occurrence of the basic events are solved. An example of this kind of system, electrical system T, is given, in which the probability of component failure is related to its service time t and working temperature c. A modified method to solve the above problems is proposed, and the probability distribution of system T fault occurrence is calculated. For this example, it is shown that the probabilistic maximum position of the three states of the system is close to the effective range P (Tn0) of P (T0) and the maximum value of P (T0), which is the same as that of the real system reliability. On the other hand, the system is sensitive to the service time t and T _ (0.5) to T ~ (1) when the transition from T0 to T = 0.5 is sensitive to the temperature c.
【作者单位】：辽宁工程技术大学安全科学与工程学院;矿山热动力灾害与防治教育部重点实验室;大连交通大学辽宁省隧道与地下结构工程技术研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(61350003) 教育部高校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20102121110002)
【分类号】：X913

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